The influence of coal price uncertainty on investment and consumption dynamics: Evidence from China

IF 9.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Policy Pub Date : 2025-02-02 DOI:10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114517

Boqiang Lin, Tianxu Lan

引用次数: 0

Abstract

Coal, being a pivotal energy source in China, exerts a profound influence on investment and consumption, thereby shaping market supply-demand dynamics and economic trajectories. By employing the local projection method, this research delves into the impacts of coal price uncertainty shocks (CPU) on investment and consumption across various Chinese provinces. The key findings of the article are as follows: (1) CPU shocks exert a significant suppressive effect on both investment and consumption in China; (2) the influence of CPU on consumption and investment exhibits notable regional heterogeneity and nonlinear characteristics; (3) By integrating the regime-switching model, the study differentiates China's new energy development into high and low stages. The results demonstrate that the new energy advancement effectively alleviates the negative impacts of CPU on investment and consumption. Finally, based on these findings, the article offers targeted policy recommendations.

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煤炭价格不确定性对投资和消费动态的影响：来自中国的证据

煤炭作为中国的关键能源，对投资和消费产生了深远的影响，从而塑造了市场供需动态和经济轨迹。本研究采用局部预测方法，探讨煤炭价格不确定性冲击对中国各省投资和消费的影响。本文的主要发现如下：(1)CPU冲击对中国的投资和消费都有显著的抑制作用；(2) CPU对消费和投资的影响具有显著的区域异质性和非线性特征；(3)通过整合制度转换模型，将中国新能源发展划分为高、低两个阶段。结果表明，新能源的推进有效缓解了CPU对投资和消费的负面影响。最后，基于这些发现，本文提出了有针对性的政策建议。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Energy Policy 管理科学-环境科学

CiteScore

17.30

自引率

5.60%

发文量

540

审稿时长

7.9 months

期刊介绍： Energy policy is the manner in which a given entity (often governmental) has decided to address issues of energy development including energy conversion, distribution and use as well as reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in order to contribute to climate change mitigation. The attributes of energy policy may include legislation, international treaties, incentives to investment, guidelines for energy conservation, taxation and other public policy techniques. Energy policy is closely related to climate change policy because totalled worldwide the energy sector emits more greenhouse gas than other sectors.