The southward shift of hurricane genesis over the northern Atlantic Ocean

IF 8.5 1区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
Xi Cao, Renguang Wu, Xianling Jiang, Yifeng Dai, Pengfei Wang, Lei Zhou, Liang Wu, Difei Deng, Ying Sun, Shangfeng Chen, Kaiming Hu, Zhibiao Wang, Lu Liu, Xiaoqing Lan, Zhencai Du, Junhu Zhao, Xiao Xiao
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Abstract

The hurricane, with maximum wind speed over 64 kts, is among the most terrible calamities over the northern Atlantic (NATL). Previous studies identified a poleward migration of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis over the Pacific Ocean, but the shift over the NATL is statistically insignificant. The present study detects a robust southward migration in the genesis latitude of NATL TCs that later reach hurricane strength after 1979, which is consistent with a growth in hurricane frequency in the southern part (10°-20°N) of NATL. This increasing trend of hurricane frequency is intimately attributable to the decreasing vertical shear of zonal wind, resulting from a decreasing north-south temperature gradient. The reduced north-south temperature gradient is primarily caused by greater warming trend in tropospheric temperature in the subtropics, driven by intensified static stability. The present research suggests a potential increase in the hazards confronted by low-latitude islands and coastal nations in Northern America.

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来源期刊
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Earth and Planetary Sciences-Atmospheric Science
CiteScore
8.80
自引率
3.30%
发文量
87
审稿时长
21 weeks
期刊介绍: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science is an open-access journal encompassing the relevant physical, chemical, and biological aspects of atmospheric and climate science. The journal places particular emphasis on regional studies that unveil new insights into specific localities, including examinations of local atmospheric composition, such as aerosols. The range of topics covered by the journal includes climate dynamics, climate variability, weather and climate prediction, climate change, ocean dynamics, weather extremes, air pollution, atmospheric chemistry (including aerosols), the hydrological cycle, and atmosphere–ocean and atmosphere–land interactions. The journal welcomes studies employing a diverse array of methods, including numerical and statistical modeling, the development and application of in situ observational techniques, remote sensing, and the development or evaluation of new reanalyses.
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