From fossil fuels to alternative fuels: strategy development for a sustainable transport sector in Germany

Abstract

Background

Many countries agreed to reduce CO₂ emissions to limit global warming under the terms of the Paris Agreement. In Europe, this agreement is supported by the climate targets introduced under the European Green Deal and the Fit for 55 package. Although Germany has made substantial progress in reducing emissions across various sectors, the transport sector remains a notable exception, showing little improvement. It is therefore essential to reevaluate the transport sector to strengthen its contribution to achieving the emission reduction targets. The aim of this study is to identify and propose strategies for shifting from fossil fuel-based transport to a more sustainable mode centred on alternative fuels. To investigate the potential pathways, an integrated approach is developed using a SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats) analysis and multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA).

Results

A two-step survey was used to collect data from different stakeholders in order to derive the key factors for the implementation of alternative fuels and devise transition strategies. The findings show that reducing GHG emissions, resource competition, and the impacts of environmental regulations are the most important factors for evaluating the transition strategies. On the other hand, reducing the competitiveness of fossil fuels through increased prices, as well as technical and infrastructural support, are the most promising strategies.

Conclusions

The sustainable transition in the transport sector is fundamentally driven by the use of renewable fuel alternatives as sustainable energy carriers to replace fossil fuels. The use and deployment of renewable fuel alternatives will play the most significant role in the defossilization of the transport sector, on course to achieve a 55% reduction by 2030 and reaching climate-neutrality by 2050. However, identification of the proper transition strategies in the phase-out of fossil fuels and their replacement with renewable fuel alternatives necessitates a comprehensive evaluation framework. This work contributes to this by developing a holistic evaluation framework, enabling the incorporation of multiple stakeholders within the identification and evaluation of the transition strategies. While several strategies are identified, stakeholders agree that reducing the competitiveness of fossil fuels through increased prices and lower subsidies would be the best strategy.