The green hydrogen ambition and implementation gap

IF 49.7 1区材料科学 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS

Nature Energy Pub Date : 2025-01-14 DOI:10.1038/s41560-024-01684-7

Adrian Odenweller, Falko Ueckerdt

引用次数: 0

Abstract

Green hydrogen is critical for decarbonizing hard-to-electrify sectors, but it faces high costs and investment risks. Here we define and quantify the green hydrogen ambition and implementation gap, showing that meeting hydrogen expectations will remain challenging despite surging announcements of projects and subsidies. Tracking 190 projects over 3 years, we identify a wide 2023 implementation gap with only 7% of global capacity announcements finished on schedule. In contrast, the 2030 ambition gap towards 1.5 °C scenarios has been gradually closing as the announced project pipeline has nearly tripled to 422 GW within 3 years. However, we estimate that, without carbon pricing, realizing all these projects would require global subsidies of US$1.3 trillion (US$0.8–2.6 trillion range), far exceeding announced subsidies. Given past and future implementation gaps, policymakers must prepare for prolonged green hydrogen scarcity. Policy support needs to secure hydrogen investments, but should focus on applications where hydrogen is indispensable.

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绿色氢的雄心和实施差距

绿色氢对难以实现电气化的行业的脱碳至关重要，但它面临着高成本和投资风险。在这里，我们定义和量化了绿色氢的雄心和实施差距，表明尽管项目和补贴的公告激增，但满足氢的期望仍然具有挑战性。我们对190个项目进行了3年的跟踪，发现2023年的实施差距很大，只有7%的全球产能公告如期完成。相比之下，2030年实现1.5°C情景的目标差距已经逐渐缩小，因为宣布的项目管道在3年内增加了近两倍，达到422吉瓦。然而，我们估计，如果没有碳定价，实现所有这些项目将需要1.3万亿美元（0.8-2.6万亿美元）的全球补贴，远远超过宣布的补贴。鉴于过去和未来的实施差距，政策制定者必须为长期的绿色氢短缺做好准备。政策支持需要确保氢投资，但应侧重于氢不可或缺的应用。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Nature Energy Energy-Energy Engineering and Power Technology

CiteScore

75.10

自引率

1.10%

发文量

193

期刊介绍： Nature Energy is a monthly, online-only journal committed to showcasing the most impactful research on energy, covering everything from its generation and distribution to the societal implications of energy technologies and policies. With a focus on exploring all facets of the ongoing energy discourse, Nature Energy delves into topics such as energy generation, storage, distribution, management, and the societal impacts of energy technologies and policies. Emphasizing studies that push the boundaries of knowledge and contribute to the development of next-generation solutions, the journal serves as a platform for the exchange of ideas among stakeholders at the forefront of the energy sector. Maintaining the hallmark standards of the Nature brand, Nature Energy boasts a dedicated team of professional editors, a rigorous peer-review process, meticulous copy-editing and production, rapid publication times, and editorial independence. In addition to original research articles, Nature Energy also publishes a range of content types, including Comments, Perspectives, Reviews, News & Views, Features, and Correspondence, covering a diverse array of disciplines relevant to the field of energy.