[Construction of prognostic prediction model for patients with sepsis-induced acute kidney injury treated with continuous renal replacement therapy].

Abstract

Objective: To explore the influencing factors of prognosis in patients with sepsis-induced acute kidney injury undergoing continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT), and to construct a mortality risk prediction model.

Methods: A retrospective research method was adopted, patients with sepsis-induced acute kidney injury who received CRRT at Fuyang People's Hospital from February 2021 to September 2023 were included in this study. Collect general information, comorbidities, vital signs, laboratory indicators, disease severity scores, treatment status, length of stay in the intensive care unit (ICU), and 28-day prognosis were collected within 24 hours of patient enrollment. The Cox regression model was used to identify the factors influencing prognosis in patients with sepsis-induced acute kidney injury, and a nomogram model was developed to predict mortality in these patients. Receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC curve), calibration curve, and Hosmer-Lemeshow test were used to validate the predictive performance of the nomogram model.

Results: A total of 146 patients with sepsis-induced acute kidney injury were included, of which 98 survived and 48 died (with a mortality of 32.88%) after 28 days of treatment. The blood lactic acid, interleukin-6 (IL-6), serum cystatin C, acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II), sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA), and proportion of mechanical ventilation in the death group were significantly higher than those in the survival group. The ICU stay was significantly longer than that in the survival group, and the glomerular filtration rate was significantly lower than that in the survival group. Cox regression analysis showed that blood lactic acid [odds ratio (OR) = 2.992, 95% confidence interval (95%CI) was 1.023-8.754], IL-6 (OR = 3.522, 95%CI was 1.039-11.929), serum cystatin C (OR = 3.999, 95%CI was 1.367-11.699), mechanical ventilation (OR = 4.133, 95%CI was 1.413-12.092), APACHE II score (OR = 5.013, 95%CI was 1.713-14.667), SOFA score (OR = 3.404, 95%CI was 1.634-9.959) were risk factors for mortality in patients with sepsis-induced acute kidney injury (all P < 0.05), glomerular filtration rate (OR = 0.294, 95%CI was 0.101-0.860) was a protective factor for mortality in patients with sepsis-induced acute kidney injury (P < 0.05). The ROC curve showed that the column chart model has a sensitivity of 80.0% (95%CI was 69.1%-89.2%) and a specificity of 89.3% (95%CI was 83.1%-95.2%) in predicting 28-day mortality in patients with acute kidney injury caused by sepsis.

Conclusions: Blood lactic acid, IL-6, mechanical ventilation, APACHEII score, SOFA score, glomerular filtration rate, and serum cystatin C are associated with the risk of death in patients with sepsis-induced acute kidney injury. The nomogram model could help early identification of mortality risk in these patients.