Steve Pye, Michael Bradshaw, James Price, Dan Zhang, Caroline Kuzemko, Jack Sharples, Dan Welsby, Paul E. Dodds
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引用次数: 0
Abstract
Recent years have seen unprecedented shifts in global natural gas trade, precipitated in large part by Russia’s war on Ukraine. How this regional conflict impacts the future of natural gas markets is subject to three interconnected factors: (i) Russia’s strategy to regain markets for its gas exports; (ii) Europe’s push towards increased liquified natural gas (LNG) and the pace of its low carbon transition; and (iii) China’s gas demand and how it balances its climate and energy security objectives. A scenario modelling approach is applied to explore the potential implications of this geopolitical crisis. We find that Russia struggles to regain pre-crisis gas export levels, with the degrees of its success contingent on China’s strategy. Compared to 2020, Russia’s gas exports are down by 31–47% in 2040 where new markets are limited and by 13–38% under a pivot to Asia strategy. We demonstrate how integrating energy geopolitics and modelling enhances our understanding of energy futures.
期刊介绍：
Nature Communications, an open-access journal, publishes high-quality research spanning all areas of the natural sciences. Papers featured in the journal showcase significant advances relevant to specialists in each respective field. With a 2-year impact factor of 16.6 (2022) and a median time of 8 days from submission to the first editorial decision, Nature Communications is committed to rapid dissemination of research findings. As a multidisciplinary journal, it welcomes contributions from biological, health, physical, chemical, Earth, social, mathematical, applied, and engineering sciences, aiming to highlight important breakthroughs within each domain.
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