Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis estimated prevalence cases from 2022 to 2030, data from the national ALS Registry.

Abstract

Objective: To estimate the projected number of ALS cases in the United States from 2022 to 2030. Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a progressive and fatal neuromuscular disease with no known cure. Because ALS is not a notifiable disease in the United States, the accurate ascertainment of prevalent ALS cases continues to be a challenge. To overcome this, the National ALS Registry (Registry) uses novel methods to estimate newly diagnosed and existing cases in the United States. Methods: We estimated ALS prevalence retrospectively from 2022 to 2024 and prospectively from 2025 to 2030 using prevalence obtained through previous CRC analyses on 2018 Registry data (the most current data available) to generate projected observed, missing, and total cases. Projected prevalent cases were then stratified by age, race, and sex. Results: The number of estimated ALS cases in 2022 was 32,893. By 2030, projected cases increase more than 10%, to 36,308. The largest increase occurs for the population ages 66 years and older, with a 25% increase (from 16,349 cases in 2022 to 20,438 cases in 2030). The projected number of cases classified as "other race" will increase by 15% (from 2,473 cases in 2022 to 2,854 cases in 2030). Conclusions: These estimates of projected ALS cases reflect anticipated changes in the underlying demographics of the United States. Our projections are likely an underestimation because emerging therapeutics and improved healthcare will improve survivability in this vulnerable population. These results should inform policy to more efficiently allocate resources for ALS patients and programs.