Debris flows in the northern Tien Shan, Central Asia: regional database, meteorological triggers, and trends

npj Natural Hazards Pub Date : 2024-12-31 DOI:10.1038/s44304-024-00050-7

Maria Shahgedanova, Zarina Saidaliyeva, Ainur Mussina, Vassily Kapitsa, Zhanar Raimbekova, Denis Donskikh, Daulet Kissebayev, Murat Kasenov, Maxim Petrov

{"title":"Debris flows in the northern Tien Shan, Central Asia: regional database, meteorological triggers, and trends","authors":"Maria Shahgedanova, Zarina Saidaliyeva, Ainur Mussina, Vassily Kapitsa, Zhanar Raimbekova, Denis Donskikh, Daulet Kissebayev, Murat Kasenov, Maxim Petrov","doi":"10.1038/s44304-024-00050-7","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Debris flows, caused by Glacier Lake Outburst Floods (GLOF) or extreme weather, threaten lives and infrastructure in the northern Tien Shan. A geo-referenced database of 458 debris flow events of different geneses was compiled for the region. Between 1887 and 2020, there were 55 GLOF events, all resulting in debris flow formation. Their frequency peaked in the 1970s and declined afterwards. These events were associated with high air temperatures but not heavy rainfall. Debris flows unrelated to GLOFs were documented in the central Ile Alatau for the 1931–2020 period. They were predominantly caused by short-duration intense rainfall (pluvial debris flows) and/or intense glaciers and snowmelt. The median rainfall intensity triggering pluvial debris flows was 22–28 mm/day, depending on the catchment. There was no long-term trend in the frequency of pluvial debris flows, but their formation is increasingly observed at higher elevations.","PeriodicalId":501712,"journal":{"name":"npj Natural Hazards","volume":" ","pages":"1-12"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2024-12-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s44304-024-00050-7.pdf","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"npj Natural Hazards","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s44304-024-00050-7","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Abstract

Debris flows, caused by Glacier Lake Outburst Floods (GLOF) or extreme weather, threaten lives and infrastructure in the northern Tien Shan. A geo-referenced database of 458 debris flow events of different geneses was compiled for the region. Between 1887 and 2020, there were 55 GLOF events, all resulting in debris flow formation. Their frequency peaked in the 1970s and declined afterwards. These events were associated with high air temperatures but not heavy rainfall. Debris flows unrelated to GLOFs were documented in the central Ile Alatau for the 1931–2020 period. They were predominantly caused by short-duration intense rainfall (pluvial debris flows) and/or intense glaciers and snowmelt. The median rainfall intensity triggering pluvial debris flows was 22–28 mm/day, depending on the catchment. There was no long-term trend in the frequency of pluvial debris flows, but their formation is increasingly observed at higher elevations.

Abstract Image

查看原文本刊更多论文

中亚天山北部泥石流：区域数据库、气象触发因素和趋势

冰川湖溃决洪水（GLOF）或极端天气造成的泥石流威胁着天山北部的生命和基础设施。编制了该地区458次不同成因泥石流事件的地理参考数据库。在1887年至2020年间，发生了55次GLOF事件，都导致了泥石流的形成。它们的频率在20世纪70年代达到顶峰，之后开始下降。这些事件与高温有关，但与强降雨无关。1931年至2020年期间，在阿拉托岛中部记录了与GLOFs无关的泥石流。它们主要是由短时强降雨（洪积泥石流）和/或强冰川和融雪造成的。引发洪积泥石流的中位数降雨强度为22-28 mm/天，具体取决于流域。洪积泥石流的发生频率没有长期趋势，但在海拔较高的地区，洪积泥石流的形成越来越明显。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

求助全文

约1分钟内获得全文求助全文

来源期刊

npj Natural Hazards

自引率

0.00%

发文量