Not a border crisis, but a labor market crisis: The often overlooked “pull” factor of U.S. border crossings

Abstract

This study investigates the link between Southwest U.S. border crossings and labor market tightness, measured by the job openings to unemployed ratio, over nearly 25 years (2000 to 2024). Analyzing monthly data, it finds a strong positive correlation, suggesting that increased border crossings strongly align with greater job availability. Exploiting data across different presidential administrations reveals no statistically significant differences in this relationship, regardless of the President's party. The findings suggest a natural economic adjustment mechanism in which crossings naturally decrease as the labor market cools.