Mobility patterns in Austrian and Italian municipalities in the decade before and during the COVID-19 era

Abstract

In European countries, where the demographic transition has reached advanced stages and the natural increase has fallen below zero, migration constitutes a significant component of local population change. We investigate to what extent the dynamics of international migration and internal mobility changed during the first waves of the COVID-19 pandemic, compared to the previous decade. We focus on Austrian and Italian municipalities to assess the contribution of migration components to local population growth, using official data provided by National Statistical Institutes on inflows and outflows of migrant and native populations, from 2010 to 2020. The adoption of harmonized degrees of urbanization allows us to profile spatial and demographic patterns of mobility, in the Austrian and Italian territories. We apply Bayesian-Geostatistical models, and Artificial Neural-Networks to investigate the potential determinants of mobility variability. The results reveal Austrian and Italian population-specific migration trends. Overall, the trends observed in the decade before the pandemic were either confirmed or further accentuated during the COVID-19 era. Although rural-urban mobility generally persisted in both countries, counter-urbanization trends were detected among Austrian populations during the initial period of the COVID-19 pandemic. Conversely, urban and intermediate municipalities in Italy maintained their attractiveness and capacity to retain Italian populations. These findings offer new empirical insights into urbanization dynamics in a comparative perspective, which are particularly relevant for the definition of European regional policy aimed at matching local needs with national social cohesion goals.