Dynamic relationships between inflation, industrial production, and freight rates in the EU: A wavelet coherence and causality analysis

IF 3.5 2区社会学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Marine Policy Pub Date : 2024-11-28 DOI:10.1016/j.marpol.2024.106534

Savaş Tarkun

{"title":"Dynamic relationships between inflation, industrial production, and freight rates in the EU: A wavelet coherence and causality analysis","authors":"Savaş Tarkun","doi":"10.1016/j.marpol.2024.106534","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates the impact of maritime transport costs on macroeconomic indicators in the European Union (EU) economy. Using data for the period between June 2002 and April 2024, the dynamic relationships between the Baltic Dry Index, the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index, and the Baltic Clean Tanker Index and EU inflation and industrial production are analyzed using wavelet coherence analysis and the Breitung-Candelon frequency domain causality test. The results show that maritime transport costs significantly impact EU inflation and industrial production, especially during periods of economic crisis and shocks. The study suggests that the EU needs to strengthen its supply chain management, diversify its logistics infrastructure, and develop strategies to reduce energy costs. Proactive and sustainable policy recommendations for the EU are also presented to increase the predictability of maritime transport costs. Our study emphasizes that the EU needs to make structural investments in energy and logistics to ensure price stability. It suggests that the EU should monitor and integrate transport costs into economic policies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48427,"journal":{"name":"Marine Policy","volume":"172 ","pages":"Article 106534"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5000,"publicationDate":"2024-11-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Marine Policy","FirstCategoryId":"90","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0308597X24005347","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of maritime transport costs on macroeconomic indicators in the European Union (EU) economy. Using data for the period between June 2002 and April 2024, the dynamic relationships between the Baltic Dry Index, the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index, and the Baltic Clean Tanker Index and EU inflation and industrial production are analyzed using wavelet coherence analysis and the Breitung-Candelon frequency domain causality test. The results show that maritime transport costs significantly impact EU inflation and industrial production, especially during periods of economic crisis and shocks. The study suggests that the EU needs to strengthen its supply chain management, diversify its logistics infrastructure, and develop strategies to reduce energy costs. Proactive and sustainable policy recommendations for the EU are also presented to increase the predictability of maritime transport costs. Our study emphasizes that the EU needs to make structural investments in energy and logistics to ensure price stability. It suggests that the EU should monitor and integrate transport costs into economic policies.

查看原文本刊更多论文

求助全文

约1分钟内获得全文求助全文

来源期刊

Marine Policy Multiple-

CiteScore

7.60

自引率

13.20%

发文量

428

期刊介绍： Marine Policy is the leading journal of ocean policy studies. It offers researchers, analysts and policy makers a unique combination of analyses in the principal social science disciplines relevant to the formulation of marine policy. Major articles are contributed by specialists in marine affairs, including marine economists and marine resource managers, political scientists, marine scientists, international lawyers, geographers and anthropologists. Drawing on their expertise and research, the journal covers: international, regional and national marine policies; institutional arrangements for the management and regulation of marine activities, including fisheries and shipping; conflict resolution; marine pollution and environment; conservation and use of marine resources. Regular features of Marine Policy include research reports, conference reports and reports on current developments to keep readers up-to-date with the latest developments and research in ocean affairs.