Both climate and anthropogenic impacts on recent lake area change in the Erdos Plateau

Abstract

It is challenging to elucidate lake changes and their causality, particularly in the regions with strong anthropogenic impacts. This study examined the changes and patterns of surface water bodies in China's Erdos Plateau from 2000 to 2022, with a particular focus on how climate and anthropogenic activities have influenced these changes. The results indicate a significant decline in the total water area of the lakes, which decreased from 192 km² in 2000 to 157 km² in 2011, representing a decline of 35 km² (18.23%). The decline was driven by reduced precipitation, increased evapotranspiration (ET_P), and intensified anthropogenic activities such as mining, irrigation, and grazing. However, a notable recovery was observed, with the total lake area expanding to 276 km² by 2022, reflecting an increase of 119 km² (75.8%), largely due to the implementation of more stringent policy regulations. A quantitative analysis of the independent contributions of influencing factors, revealing that precipitation and mining accounted for approximately 25.47% and 22.22%, respectively, of the recorded changes in lake area. Other factors, including temperature, ET_P, irrigation, and grazing, also played contributing roles. This study underscores the importance of adopting comprehensive management strategies, such as improving water resource management, enforcing environmental regulations, and promoting sustainable land use practices, to ensure the long-term sustainability of lake ecosystems in the Erdos Plateau. Coordinated efforts are essential to mitigate negative impacts and ensure the conservation of these critical water bodies.