Spatiotemporal analysis of roadway terrains impact on large truck driver injury severity outcomes using random parameters with heterogeneity in means and variances approach

Abstract

This study employs a partially temporally constrained modeling approach to examine spatiotemporal variations in driver injury severity in single-vehicle large truck crashes across different terrains in California, allowing for a nuanced understanding of how specific factors influencing injury outcomes may change over time. Utilizing crash data from January 1st, 2015, to December 31st, 2017, obtained from the Highway Safety Information System, this study categorizes terrains as flat, rolling, and mountainous terrain and employs a random parameter multinomial logit model with heterogeneity in means and variance to account for potential heterogeneity in crash injury outcomes. This approach helps understand how different terrains influence injury severities while allowing for parameter variability across observations. The analysis is further enriched by likelihood ratio tests to verify the stability and temporal transferability of the model estimates across different terrains and years. Notably, the study identifies truck overturning as the first and second event in a crash as a consistent parameter influencing injury severity across all years, emphasizing its importance regardless of terrain or time in single-vehicle large truck crashes. Furthermore, this study takes into account a wide range of variables, including driver characteristics, crash attributes, roadway characteristics, vehicle features, and environmental and temporal aspects. The findings highlight the importance of terrain-specific elements in traffic safety assessments and the need for focused measures to reduce serious injuries in truck crashes. The out-of-sample simulation revealed a significant increase in minor and severe injuries when flat terrain parameters were replaced with those from rolling or mountainous terrains. This research not only contributes to the existing literature by detailing the dynamics of injury severity in single-vehicle large truck crashes but also announces the utility of partially temporally constrained models in enhancing traffic safety management strategies.