Evidence and determinants of rural crime victimization in Tanzania

IF 5.4 1区经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES

World Development Pub Date : 2024-11-22 DOI:10.1016/j.worlddev.2024.106854

Ulrike Grote , Gregor Mager , Anja Faße , Frank Neubacher , Luitfred Kissoly

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Abstract

Rural crime victimization, especially in form of theft, is a serious problem in rural areas in Sub Saharan Africa as it may undermine their sustainable development. Using the case of Tanzania, we investigate the evidence of crime and analyze the factors which determine victimization. Based on a panel dataset of 786 households from rural Tanzania, we find relatively high victimization rates of 37 % and 47 % in 2016 and 2018, respectively. The random-effects and pooled logit models reveal that living in a rural region with high levels of unemployment is positively correlated with the likelihood of victimization. Moreover, exposure to weather shocks such as floods is positively associated with the likelihood of being affected by crime. We conclude that rural crime victimization requires attention due to its high incidence in Tanzania. Improving job opportunities especially for the youth in rural Tanzania is expected to reduce the likelihood of victimization. Guardianship should be encouraged, especially during times of weather shocks.

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坦桑尼亚农村犯罪受害情况的证据和决定因素

在撒哈拉以南非洲的农村地区，农村犯罪受害，尤其是盗窃形式的犯罪受害，是一个严重的问题，因为它可能会破坏农村地区的可持续发展。我们以坦桑尼亚为例，调查了犯罪证据，并分析了决定受害情况的因素。基于坦桑尼亚农村地区 786 个家庭的面板数据集，我们发现 2016 年和 2018 年的受害率相对较高，分别为 37% 和 47%。随机效应和集合对数模型显示，生活在失业率较高的农村地区与受害的可能性呈正相关。此外，洪水等天气冲击也与受犯罪影响的可能性呈正相关。我们的结论是，由于坦桑尼亚农村犯罪率较高，因此需要关注农村犯罪受害问题。增加就业机会，尤其是为坦桑尼亚农村地区的年轻人增加就业机会，有望降低受害的可能性。应鼓励监护人制度，尤其是在气候冲击时期。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

World Development Multiple-

CiteScore

12.70

自引率

5.80%

发文量

320

期刊介绍： World Development is a multi-disciplinary monthly journal of development studies. It seeks to explore ways of improving standards of living, and the human condition generally, by examining potential solutions to problems such as: poverty, unemployment, malnutrition, disease, lack of shelter, environmental degradation, inadequate scientific and technological resources, trade and payments imbalances, international debt, gender and ethnic discrimination, militarism and civil conflict, and lack of popular participation in economic and political life. Contributions offer constructive ideas and analysis, and highlight the lessons to be learned from the experiences of different nations, societies, and economies.