Hotspot analysis of global piracy and armed robbery incidents at sea: A decadal review of regional vulnerabilities and security strategies

Abstract

Maritime piracy (MP) and armed robbery at sea (ARS) pose significant threats to global maritime security, affecting trade and economic stability. These incidents, whether successful or not, can lead to loss of life, and long-lasting mental and psychological health impacts on ship crews. This study utilizes the spatial density analysis via the Geographic Information System to explore the global distribution of MP and ARS incidents from 2010 to 2021. Analysing 3241 incidents that occurred across the globe over two distinct periods, 2010–2015 and 2016–2021, the study has identified and visualized hotspot areas globally, revealing the geographic patterns with an aim to assist the strategic mitigation of these threats. Regional analyses indicate a shift in piracy activities; Southeast Asia shows a decrease in attacks (halved) in the Straits of Malacca coupled with persistent threats in the Singapore Strait. Conversely, East Africa has seen a reduction in piracy due to effective international maritime patrols and legal frameworks, although the area remains volatile due to persistent socio-economic and political challenges. The findings demonstrate that geopolitical instability, legal gaps, and economic disparities significantly contribute to MP and ARS. The study advocates for sustained international cooperation, enhanced legal measures, and continuous monitoring to effectively combat these threats. Future research could benefit from a more detailed temporal analysis, using different methodological approaches (e.g., incorporating time-series analysis) to capture seasonal or short-term variations in incident occurrences. This could provide additional insights into the dynamics of piracy and armed robbery incidents and inform policy and security strategy adjustments.