A role game to learn about risk perception via downward counterfactual thinking

Abstract

Italy is exposed to significant seismic and volcanic hazards, particularly in the Campania region, home to the Phlegraean Fields volcanic crater near Naples. Unlike Vesuvius and Stromboli, the Phlegraean Fields threat is not readily visible, and public awareness of volcanic danger and the civic emergency plan is correspondingly quite limited. Recent increased levels of regional seismic activity have concentrated attention on enhancing public volcano risk awareness, especially among younger generations.

Recognizing the influential role of the younger demographic in societal scientific awareness, effective language and engagement strategies become paramount. In this context, Serious Games, which balance serious and playful elements, emerge as an innovative science communication tool actively involving participants and enhancing their learning experience.

Integral to risk analysis is the use of downward counterfactual analysis, a cognitive psychology concept that prompts a deliberate examination of how events might have taken a more adverse turn. This approach contributes to enhanced disaster preparedness, particularly for extreme natural risks such as volcanic eruptions.

An interactive Victorian parlor game was designed for the 2023 edition of the Science Fair “Futuro Remoto” in Bagnoli, in the Phlegraean Fields. This game aims to elevate risk awareness, offering participants an instructive and engaging experience focused on counterfactual thinking, problem-solving, and leadership skills development.

The initiative places participants at the core of the learning process, fostering not only the acquisition of scientific knowledge but also individual risk intelligence. An evaluation protocol has been developed to assess the impact of the experience on risk perception, with outcomes to be presented after the 2023 edition of “Futuro Remoto,” where nearly 200 participants engaged in the game.