Cooperation or conflict in northeast Asia? - An approach of NARCI (Northeast Asia Regional Cooperation Index)

Jiyoung Moon , Jehoon Park , Sunghoon Park
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Abstract

In order to measure the current status of Northeast Asian regional cooperation, more specifically in order to comprehensively evaluate whether the region is in a state of cooperation or conflict, this paper adopts a revised and improved combination of approaches used in three existing publications. The Northeast Asia Cooperation Index (NARCI) illustrates the strained situation in Northeast Asia as expected. Looking at the total score, it is -0.25 and -0.425 in 2022 and 2023, respectively, indicating that Northeast Asian regional cooperation is in a state of conflict rather than cooperation and is getting worse. In particular, the political and security situation is at its worst and the economy is also depressed. Regional trade, investment and energy cooperation are all deteriorating. However, some indicators point to the obvious contrast between cooperation and conflict in Northeast Asia giving unexpected dynamism. It should be emphasized that the regional value chain remains robust, even amid the conflict between the US and China.
东北亚的合作还是冲突?- 东北亚区域合作指数(NARCI)的研究方法
为了衡量东北亚区域合作的现状,更具体地说,为了全面评估该地区是处于合作状态还是冲突状态,本文对现有三份出版物中使用的方法进行了修订和改进。东北亚合作指数(NARCI)如期显示了东北亚地区的紧张局势。从总分来看,2022 年和 2023 年的东北亚合作指数分别为-0.25 和-0.425,表明东北亚地区合作处于冲突而非合作的状态,并有恶化的趋势。尤其是政治和安全形势最差,经济也不景气。地区贸易、投资和能源合作都在恶化。然而,一些指标表明,东北亚地区合作与冲突之间的明显反差带来了意想不到的活力。需要强调的是,即使在中美冲突的情况下,地区价值链依然强劲。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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