Spatio-temporal evaluation of MODIS temperature vegetation dryness index in the Middle East

IF 5.8 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ECOLOGY
Younes Khosravi , Saeid Homayouni , Taha B.M.J. Ouarda
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Abstract

Drought, a recurring meteorological event, can potentially cause devastating consequences for human populations, and its attributes vary significantly across diverse geographic areas. Therefore, recognizing drought events is paramount for strategically planning and managing water resource systems. In this study, the Temperature Vegetation Dryness Index (TVDI), derived using Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data spanning from 2003 to 2022 in the Middle East, was used as the foundation for both trend and spectral analyses. To assess TVDI trends, the Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimator were utilized, and harmonic analysis was conducted for spectral analyses. These methods were applied to a dataset comprising 258,087 pixels within the specified region, covering various time scales, including monthly and seasonal analyses. The monthly analyses indicated significant growth in March and April, with September showing the least significant increase, suggesting stability or decline. Geographically, upward trends were predominant in the northern Middle East, including Turkey, Syria, Iraq, western Iran, and eastern Jordan. Significant downward trends were observed in the southern Middle East during the warmer months. Seasonal assessments showed no significant TVDI trends in winter, but upward trends in the south, west, and northwest were identified during spring. The annual trend map indicates a long-term declining trend in TVDI for most regions within specific latitudes, particularly those below 34 degrees. The results of harmonic analysis revealed the presence of multiple cycles at a 95 % confidence level. Notably, there was a heightened prevalence of significant sinusoidal cycles, especially the 2–3-year cycles. This cycle was widespread in countries such as Iran, Oman, Yemen, and Turkey, as well as in the southern regions of Saudi Arabia and Egypt.
中东地区 MODIS 温度植被干燥指数的时空评估
干旱是一种经常发生的气象事件,可能会对人类造成毁灭性的后果,其属性在不同的地理区域有很大差异。因此,识别干旱事件对于水资源系统的战略规划和管理至关重要。在本研究中,利用中东地区 2003 年至 2022 年的中分辨率成像光谱仪(MODIS)数据得出的温度植被干燥指数(TVDI),作为趋势和光谱分析的基础。为评估 TVDI 趋势,使用了 Mann-Kendall 检验和 Sen 的斜率估计器,并对光谱分析进行了谐波分析。这些方法适用于指定区域内由 258,087 个像素组成的数据集,涵盖各种时间尺度,包括月度和季节分析。月度分析表明,3 月和 4 月出现了显著增长,而 9 月的增长幅度最小,表明趋于稳定或下降。从地域上看,中东北部(包括土耳其、叙利亚、伊拉克、伊朗西部和约旦东部)主要呈上升趋势。在温暖的月份,中东南部出现了明显的下降趋势。季节性评估显示,冬季 TVDI 没有明显趋势,但春季南部、西部和西北部有上升趋势。年度趋势图显示,在特定纬度的大多数地区,特别是 34 度以下的地区,TVDI 呈长期下降趋势。谐波分析结果显示,在 95% 的置信度下存在多个周期。值得注意的是,显著的正弦波周期,尤其是 2-3 年周期更为普遍。这种周期在伊朗、阿曼、也门和土耳其等国以及沙特阿拉伯和埃及南部地区普遍存在。
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来源期刊
Ecological Informatics
Ecological Informatics 环境科学-生态学
CiteScore
8.30
自引率
11.80%
发文量
346
审稿时长
46 days
期刊介绍: The journal Ecological Informatics is devoted to the publication of high quality, peer-reviewed articles on all aspects of computational ecology, data science and biogeography. The scope of the journal takes into account the data-intensive nature of ecology, the growing capacity of information technology to access, harness and leverage complex data as well as the critical need for informing sustainable management in view of global environmental and climate change. The nature of the journal is interdisciplinary at the crossover between ecology and informatics. It focuses on novel concepts and techniques for image- and genome-based monitoring and interpretation, sensor- and multimedia-based data acquisition, internet-based data archiving and sharing, data assimilation, modelling and prediction of ecological data.
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