State firearm legislation and initiation of gun carrying in the USA.

Abstract

Objective: Early onset of gun carrying correlates with a heightened risk of violent offences and injuries. This research estimates the association between state firearm legislation and first-time handgun carrying in the USA. It further identifies specific policy measures that could be most effective in discouraging the onset of risky gun-carrying activities.

Methods: The study sample included 6194 youth (51% male, 49% female; 48% white, 27% black, 24% Hispanic and 1% other race and ethnicity) drawn from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997, with an average age of 14.3 at the first round of data collection. Participants self-reported when they first carried a handgun. Discrete-time survival analysis was used to model the likelihood of gun-carrying initiation over time, using an overarching state gun law environment score as well as proportionate scores for individual policy subcategories as primary predictors. Analyses were completed in 2024.

Results: Approximately 30% of the study sample had initiated handgun carrying by the end of the study period. Individuals in states with a greater number of gun laws were less prone to begin carrying handguns. This association was notably stronger for males and white individuals. Laws that extend the firearm acquisition process and increase purchaser accountability were associated with a greater reduction in the initiation rates than other types of policy measures.

Conclusions: State firearm legislation has the potential to deter the commencement of risky gun-carrying behaviour. It is recommended that states consider implementing, publicising and enforcing these laws to reduce gun-related mortality and morbidity.