A Factor Two Difference in 21st-Century Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Mass Balance Projections From Three Regional Climate Models Under a Strong Warming Scenario (SSP5-8.5)

IF 4.6 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Geophysical Research Letters Pub Date : 2024-11-21 DOI:10.1029/2024gl111902

Q. Glaude, B. Noel, M. Olesen, M. Van den Broeke, W. J. van de Berg, R. Mottram, N. Hansen, A. Delhasse, C. Amory, C. Kittel, H. Goelzer, X. Fettweis

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Abstract

The Arctic is warming rapidly, significantly reducing the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) surface mass balance (SMB) and raising its contribution to global sea-level rise. Since these trends are expected to continue, it is essential to explore the GrIS SMB response to projected climate warming. We compare projections from three polar regional climate models, RACMO, MAR, and HIRHAM, forced by the Community Earth System Model CESM2 under a high-end warming scenario (SSP5-8.5, 1970–2099). We reveal different modeled SMB by 2100, including a twofold larger annual surface mass loss in MAR (−1735 Gt/yr) and HIRHAM (−1698 Gt/yr) relative to RACMO (−964 Gt/yr). Discrepancies primarily stem from differences in projected runoff, triggering melt-albedo positive feedback and subsequent modeled ablation zone expansion. In addition, we find different responses of modeled meltwater production to similar atmospheric warming. Our analysis suggests clear avenues for model developments to further improve SMB projections and contribution to sea-level rise.

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三种区域气候模式在强烈变暖情景（SSP5-8.5）下对 21 世纪格陵兰冰盖地表质量平衡的预测相差 2 倍

北极地区正在迅速变暖，格陵兰冰盖（GrIS）表面质量平衡（SMB）大大降低，对全球海平面上升的贡献也随之增加。由于这些趋势预计将持续下去，因此有必要探索格陵兰冰盖表面质量平衡（SMB）对预测气候变暖的响应。我们比较了 RACMO、MAR 和 HIRHAM 三个极地区域气候模式的预测结果，这些预测结果是在高端气候变暖情景（SSP5-8.5，1970-2099 年）下，由共同体地球系统模式 CESM2 强迫得出的。我们揭示了到 2100 年不同模式的 SMB，其中 MAR（-1735 Gt/yr）和 HIRHAM（-1698 Gt/yr）的年地表质量损失比 RACMO（-964 Gt/yr）大两倍。差异主要源于预测径流的不同，这引发了融化-反渗透正反馈以及随后的模型消融带扩张。此外，我们还发现模拟的融水生产对类似的大气变暖有不同的反应。我们的分析为模型开发提出了明确的途径，以进一步改进 SMB 预测和对海平面上升的贡献。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Geophysical Research Letters 地学-地球科学综合

CiteScore

9.00

自引率

9.60%

发文量

1588

审稿时长

2.2 months

期刊介绍： Geophysical Research Letters (GRL) publishes high-impact, innovative, and timely research on major scientific advances in all the major geoscience disciplines. Papers are communications-length articles and should have broad and immediate implications in their discipline or across the geosciences. GRLmaintains the fastest turn-around of all high-impact publications in the geosciences and works closely with authors to ensure broad visibility of top papers.