Has lake brownification ceased? Stabilization, re-browning, and other factors associated with dissolved organic matter trends in eastern Canadian lakes

Abstract

The increase in dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations in freshwater systems has received considerable attention due to its implications for drinking water treatment and numerous limnological processes. While past studies have documented the influence of recovery from acidification and climate change on long-term DOC trends, the emerging importance of these explanatory factors remains less understood. In addition, few studies have followed up on recent trends in sites that have undergone increases in DOC. Using a dataset from 1980 to 2020, we investigated interannual variations in DOC and dissolved organic nitrogen (DON) in 49 lakes across four eastern Canadian regions with a history of increases in DOC. We identified recent shifts in DOC patterns using LOESS smoothing and piecewise regression. We observed a stabilizing pattern or even a decrease (p < 0.001) in high acidification regions (Dorset and Nova Scotia), where increases in DOC were previously documented. At the low acid deposition region, IISD-Experimental Lakes Area, an increasing pattern in DOC stabilized in the early 2000s; however, DOC appears to be increasing again in recent years (p = 0.03). Our analysis identified precipitation and SO₄ deposition as the primary explanatory variables for DOC patterns (explaining 56–71% of variance). However, because acid deposition has declined substantially, climate and local watershed factors are becoming increasingly influential, leading to the emergence of new DOC patterns. Long-term changes in DOC and DON were not always synchronous, as these were often correlated with different factors (e.g., DON with ammonium deposition). This resulted in observable shifts in DOC:DON ratios, indicative of changes in dissolved organic matter (DOM) composition. We underscore the importance of ongoing monitoring in diverse regions because of the changing nature of environmental variables and new emerging trends.