A resilience-driven emergency maintenance operation scheme optimization method based on risk

IF 9.4 1区工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL

Reliability Engineering & System Safety Pub Date : 2024-11-04 DOI:10.1016/j.ress.2024.110630

Yanping Zhang , Baoping Cai , Salim Ahmed , Chengyushu Wang , Qingping Li , Lei Gao

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

System failure caused by unexpected disruptions is unavoidable and can lead to catastrophic consequences. To complete the emergency maintenance operation safely and efficiently, a well-formulated emergency maintenance scheme is crucial. A resilience-driven optimization methodology for the emergency maintenance operation scheme with considering maintenance operational risk is proposed. The maintenance operational risk is assessed by combining Job Safety Analysis, Bayesian networks and the matter element theory. A graphical evaluation and review technique (GERT) model is established based on the informed maintenance operational risk to evaluate the emergency maintenance scheme. According to derived results of the GERT model, the expected time and the expected risk are preliminarily optimized. A re-optimization model focusing on the system resilience is established to optimize the suitable maintenance operation time for each equipment and the reasonable equipment maintenance sequence for the system. The emergency maintenance scheme optimization for the subsea production system is utilized to demonstrate the proposed method.

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基于风险的弹性驱动型应急维护运行方案优化方法

意外中断造成的系统故障不可避免，并可能导致灾难性后果。为了安全高效地完成紧急维护操作，制定一个完善的紧急维护方案至关重要。本文提出了一种考虑维护操作风险的弹性驱动的应急维护操作方案优化方法。通过结合作业安全分析、贝叶斯网络和物质元素理论来评估维护作业风险。基于知情维护操作风险，建立了图形评估和审查技术（GERT）模型，以评估应急维护方案。根据 GERT 模型的推导结果，初步优化了预期时间和预期风险。建立以系统恢复能力为核心的再优化模型，优化各设备合适的检修作业时间和系统合理的设备检修顺序。利用海底生产系统的紧急维护方案优化来演示所提出的方法。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Reliability Engineering & System Safety 管理科学-工程：工业

CiteScore

15.20

自引率

39.50%

发文量

621

审稿时长

67 days

期刊介绍： Elsevier publishes Reliability Engineering & System Safety in association with the European Safety and Reliability Association and the Safety Engineering and Risk Analysis Division. The international journal is devoted to developing and applying methods to enhance the safety and reliability of complex technological systems, like nuclear power plants, chemical plants, hazardous waste facilities, space systems, offshore and maritime systems, transportation systems, constructed infrastructure, and manufacturing plants. The journal normally publishes only articles that involve the analysis of substantive problems related to the reliability of complex systems or present techniques and/or theoretical results that have a discernable relationship to the solution of such problems. An important aim is to balance academic material and practical applications.