Is the business cycle getting hit by climate policy uncertainty in China?

IF 7.4 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Finance Research Letters Pub Date : 2024-10-31 DOI:10.1016/j.frl.2024.106344

Juan Chen, Zuoping Xiao

引用次数: 0

Abstract

This study apply an asymmetric time-varying test to assess the impact of China's climate policy uncertainty (CCPU) on its business cycle (2000–2022) using currency supply indices (M2, M1, and M0) as economic proxies. Linear Granger tests indicate no causal relationship between CCPU and the currency supply in general. However, the time-varying analysis reveals a significant impact of CCPU on M2 after December 2020. In addition, M2 mainly responds to negative CCPU shocks whereas M1 and M0 respond to both positive and negative shocks. Therefore, policymakers should adopt stabilisation measures to mitigate M2 contraction during CCPU surges while monitoring M1 and M0 for comprehensive currency policy adjustments.

查看原文本刊更多论文

中国的商业周期是否受到气候政策不确定性的影响？

本研究采用非对称时变检验法，以货币供应指数（M2、M1 和 M0）作为经济代用指标，评估中国气候政策不确定性（CCPU）对其商业周期（2000-2022 年）的影响。线性格兰杰检验表明，CCPU 与货币供应量之间总体上没有因果关系。然而，时变分析表明，2020 年 12 月之后，中央政策单位对 M2 有显著影响。此外，M2 主要对 CCPU 的负向冲击做出反应，而 M1 和 M0 则对正向和负向冲击做出反应。因此，决策者应采取稳定措施，在 CCPU 激增期间缓解 M2 收缩，同时监测 M1 和 M0，以进行全面的货币政策调整。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

求助全文

约1分钟内获得全文求助全文

来源期刊

Finance Research Letters BUSINESS, FINANCE-

CiteScore

11.10

自引率

14.40%

发文量

863

期刊介绍： Finance Research Letters welcomes submissions across all areas of finance, aiming for rapid publication of significant new findings. The journal particularly encourages papers that provide insight into the replicability of established results, examine the cross-national applicability of previous findings, challenge existing methodologies, or demonstrate methodological contingencies. Papers are invited in the following areas: Actuarial studies Alternative investments Asset Pricing Bankruptcy and liquidation Banks and other Depository Institutions Behavioral and experimental finance Bibliometric and Scientometric studies of finance Capital budgeting and corporate investment Capital markets and accounting Capital structure and payout policy Commodities Contagion, crises and interdependence Corporate governance Credit and fixed income markets and instruments Derivatives Emerging markets Energy Finance and Energy Markets Financial Econometrics Financial History Financial intermediation and money markets Financial markets and marketplaces Financial Mathematics and Econophysics Financial Regulation and Law Forecasting Frontier market studies International Finance Market efficiency, event studies Mergers, acquisitions and the market for corporate control Micro Finance Institutions Microstructure Non-bank Financial Institutions Personal Finance Portfolio choice and investing Real estate finance and investing Risk SME, Family and Entrepreneurial Finance