The effect of CHINA RAILWAY Express on alleviating the Red Sea Waterway Crisis: A GTAP model-based study

IF 4.8 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 OCEANOGRAPHY

Ocean & Coastal Management Pub Date : 2024-11-11 DOI:10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2024.107472

Yiting Wang, Ji Guo, Xianhua Wu

{"title":"The effect of CHINA RAILWAY Express on alleviating the Red Sea Waterway Crisis: A GTAP model-based study","authors":"Yiting Wang, Ji Guo, Xianhua Wu","doi":"10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2024.107472","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In November 2023, the Red Sea Waterway Crisis broke out, which caused the goods originally shipped to Europe via the Red Sea-Suez Canal Route to be transported around the Cape of Good Hope in Africa, thus increasing the shipping cost and shipping time. Firstly, this paper uses the Supply Chain Network Model and the Optimization Model to theoretically analyze the impact of this incident. Secondly, the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) Model is employed to analyze the impact of the crisis on China. At the same time, it also explains whether the impact of the incident can be alleviated by using CHINA RAILWAY Express (CR Express). Finally, this paper compares the upward pressure changes of domestic commodity prices in China, Germany, France, Netherlands and Italy before and after the adoption of CR Express. The results of the study are as follows. (1) The outbreak of the Red Sea Waterway Crisis has a great negative impact on China's macro economy. When China switches to the use of CR Express, the impact on China's GDP and terms of trade is reduced. (2) The outbreak of the Red Sea Waterway Crisis has a greater impact on China's import trade than on its export trade. (3) The outbreak of the Red Sea Waterway Crisis has a great negative impact on China's textile and clothing industry and electronic equipment industry. (4) CR Express can ease the upward pressure of domestic commodity prices. Taken together, the above results can provide reference for China and other countries to cope with similar impact events.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54698,"journal":{"name":"Ocean & Coastal Management","volume":"259 ","pages":"Article 107472"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8000,"publicationDate":"2024-11-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Ocean & Coastal Management","FirstCategoryId":"93","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0964569124004575","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"OCEANOGRAPHY","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Abstract

In November 2023, the Red Sea Waterway Crisis broke out, which caused the goods originally shipped to Europe via the Red Sea-Suez Canal Route to be transported around the Cape of Good Hope in Africa, thus increasing the shipping cost and shipping time. Firstly, this paper uses the Supply Chain Network Model and the Optimization Model to theoretically analyze the impact of this incident. Secondly, the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) Model is employed to analyze the impact of the crisis on China. At the same time, it also explains whether the impact of the incident can be alleviated by using CHINA RAILWAY Express (CR Express). Finally, this paper compares the upward pressure changes of domestic commodity prices in China, Germany, France, Netherlands and Italy before and after the adoption of CR Express. The results of the study are as follows. (1) The outbreak of the Red Sea Waterway Crisis has a great negative impact on China's macro economy. When China switches to the use of CR Express, the impact on China's GDP and terms of trade is reduced. (2) The outbreak of the Red Sea Waterway Crisis has a greater impact on China's import trade than on its export trade. (3) The outbreak of the Red Sea Waterway Crisis has a great negative impact on China's textile and clothing industry and electronic equipment industry. (4) CR Express can ease the upward pressure of domestic commodity prices. Taken together, the above results can provide reference for China and other countries to cope with similar impact events.

查看原文本刊更多论文

中国铁路快运对缓解红海水道危机的影响：基于 GTAP 模型的研究

2023 年 11 月，红海水道危机爆发，导致原本通过红海-苏伊士运河航线运往欧洲的货物不得不绕道非洲好望角运输，从而增加了运输成本和运输时间。首先，本文利用供应链网络模型和优化模型对这一事件的影响进行了理论分析。其次，运用全球贸易分析项目（GTAP）模型分析危机对中国的影响。同时，本文还解释了是否可以通过使用中国铁路快运（CR Express）来缓解此次事件的影响。最后，本文比较了中国、德国、法国、荷兰和意大利在采用中铁快运前后国内商品价格的上涨压力变化。研究结果如下。(1）红海水道危机的爆发对中国宏观经济产生了巨大的负面影响。当中国改用 CR Express 后，对中国 GDP 和贸易条件的影响减小。(2）红海水道危机的爆发对中国进口贸易的影响大于对出口贸易的影响。(3) 红海水道危机的爆发对中国纺织服装业和电子设备业的负面影响较大。(4）华润快递可以缓解国内大宗商品价格的上涨压力。综合以上结果，可以为中国和其他国家应对类似的冲击事件提供参考。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

求助全文

约1分钟内获得全文求助全文

来源期刊

Ocean & Coastal Management 环境科学-海洋学

CiteScore

8.50

自引率

15.20%

发文量

321

审稿时长

60 days

期刊介绍： Ocean & Coastal Management is the leading international journal dedicated to the study of all aspects of ocean and coastal management from the global to local levels. We publish rigorously peer-reviewed manuscripts from all disciplines, and inter-/trans-disciplinary and co-designed research, but all submissions must make clear the relevance to management and/or governance issues relevant to the sustainable development and conservation of oceans and coasts. Comparative studies (from sub-national to trans-national cases, and other management / policy arenas) are encouraged, as are studies that critically assess current management practices and governance approaches. Submissions involving robust analysis, development of theory, and improvement of management practice are especially welcome.