An innovative fractional grey system model and its application

IF 4.4 2区数学 Q1 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS

Mathematics and Computers in Simulation Pub Date : 2024-11-10 DOI:10.1016/j.matcom.2024.11.003

Wen-Ze Wu , Jie Xu , Wanli Xie , Tao Zhang

引用次数: 0

Abstract

In order to expand the applicability of the conventional fractional grey model, an innovative fractional grey model is proposed by the introduction of the innovative fractional accumulation. Three efforts are made in this study. First, the innovative fractional accumulation and its inverse operation are designed. Based on the innovative form, the parameter estimation and discrete time response of the novel model are given. In addition, the moth flame optimization algorithm is used to determine optimal hyper parameters for the novel model, and the rolling mechanism is used to enhance the prediction performance. To comprehensively confirm the forecasting ability of the proposed model, it is applied in three kinds of data with inverted U-shaped, W-shaped and oscillating features. The experimental results show the novel model is superior to all competitors in terms of level accuracy. Therefore, the novel model is considered a promising method for enhancing the existing fractional grey model.

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创新的分数灰色系统模型及其应用

为了扩大传统分数灰色模型的适用性，本研究通过引入创新的分数累积法，提出了一种创新的分数灰色模型。本研究做了三方面的工作。首先，设计了创新型分数累加及其逆运算。在创新形式的基础上，给出了新模型的参数估计和离散时间响应。此外，利用蛾焰优化算法确定了新型模型的最优超参数，并利用滚动机制提高了预测性能。为了全面证实所提模型的预测能力，将其应用于具有倒 U 形、W 形和振荡特征的三种数据中。实验结果表明，就水平精度而言，新模型优于所有竞争对手。因此，新模型被认为是增强现有分数灰色模型的一种有前途的方法。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Mathematics and Computers in Simulation 数学-计算机：跨学科应用

CiteScore

8.90

自引率

4.30%

发文量

335

审稿时长

54 days

期刊介绍： The aim of the journal is to provide an international forum for the dissemination of up-to-date information in the fields of the mathematics and computers, in particular (but not exclusively) as they apply to the dynamics of systems, their simulation and scientific computation in general. Published material ranges from short, concise research papers to more general tutorial articles. Mathematics and Computers in Simulation, published monthly, is the official organ of IMACS, the International Association for Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (Formerly AICA). This Association, founded in 1955 and legally incorporated in 1956 is a member of FIACC (the Five International Associations Coordinating Committee), together with IFIP, IFAV, IFORS and IMEKO. Topics covered by the journal include mathematical tools in: •The foundations of systems modelling •Numerical analysis and the development of algorithms for simulation They also include considerations about computer hardware for simulation and about special software and compilers. The journal also publishes articles concerned with specific applications of modelling and simulation in science and engineering, with relevant applied mathematics, the general philosophy of systems simulation, and their impact on disciplinary and interdisciplinary research. The journal includes a Book Review section -- and a "News on IMACS" section that contains a Calendar of future Conferences/Events and other information about the Association.