Treatment of epistemic uncertainty in conjunction analysis with Dempster-Shafer theory

IF 2.8 3区地球科学 Q2 ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS

Advances in Space Research Pub Date : 2024-09-12 DOI:10.1016/j.asr.2024.09.014

Luis Sánchez , Massimiliano Vasile , Silvia Sanvido , Klaus Merz , Christophe Taillan

{"title":"Treatment of epistemic uncertainty in conjunction analysis with Dempster-Shafer theory","authors":"Luis Sánchez , Massimiliano Vasile , Silvia Sanvido , Klaus Merz , Christophe Taillan","doi":"10.1016/j.asr.2024.09.014","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The paper presents an approach to the modelling of epistemic uncertainty in Conjunction Data Messages (CDM) and the classification of conjunction events according to the confidence in the probability of collision. The approach proposed in this paper is based on Dempster-Shafer Theory (DSt) of evidence and starts from the assumption that the observed CDMs are drawn from a family of unknown distributions. The Dvoretzky–Kiefer–Wolfowitz (DKW) inequality is used to construct robust bounds on such a family of unknown distributions starting from a time series of CDMs. A DSt structure is then derived from the probability boxes constructed with DKW inequality. The DSt structure encapsulates the uncertainty in the CDMs at every point along the time series and allows the computation of the belief and plausibility in the realisation of a given probability of collision. The methodology proposed in this paper is tested on a number of real events and compared against existing practices in the European and French Space Agencies. We will show that the classification system proposed in this paper is more conservative than the approach taken by the European Space Agency but provides an added quantification of uncertainty in the probability of collision.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50850,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Space Research","volume":"74 11","pages":"Pages 5639-5686"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8000,"publicationDate":"2024-09-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Advances in Space Research","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0273117724009347","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Abstract

The paper presents an approach to the modelling of epistemic uncertainty in Conjunction Data Messages (CDM) and the classification of conjunction events according to the confidence in the probability of collision. The approach proposed in this paper is based on Dempster-Shafer Theory (DSt) of evidence and starts from the assumption that the observed CDMs are drawn from a family of unknown distributions. The Dvoretzky–Kiefer–Wolfowitz (DKW) inequality is used to construct robust bounds on such a family of unknown distributions starting from a time series of CDMs. A DSt structure is then derived from the probability boxes constructed with DKW inequality. The DSt structure encapsulates the uncertainty in the CDMs at every point along the time series and allows the computation of the belief and plausibility in the realisation of a given probability of collision. The methodology proposed in this paper is tested on a number of real events and compared against existing practices in the European and French Space Agencies. We will show that the classification system proposed in this paper is more conservative than the approach taken by the European Space Agency but provides an added quantification of uncertainty in the probability of collision.

查看原文本刊更多论文

用 Dempster-Shafer 理论结合分析处理认识上的不确定性

本文提出了一种对会合数据信息（CDM）中的认识不确定性进行建模的方法，以及根据碰撞概率的置信度对会合事件进行分类的方法。本文提出的方法基于证据的 Dempster-Shafer 理论 (DSt)，并从观测到的 CDM 来自未知分布系列这一假设出发。Dvoretzky-Kiefer-Wolfowitz (DKW) 不等式用于从 CDM 的时间序列出发，构建未知分布族的稳健边界。然后，从利用 DKW 不等式构建的概率盒推导出 DSt 结构。DSt 结构囊括了 CDM 在时间序列每一点上的不确定性，并允许计算给定碰撞概率实现的信念和可信度。本文提出的方法对一些真实事件进行了测试，并与欧洲和法国航天局的现有做法进行了比较。我们将证明，本文提出的分类系统比欧洲航天局采用的方法更为保守，但对碰撞概率的不确定性进行了额外量化。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

求助全文

约1分钟内获得全文求助全文

来源期刊

Advances in Space Research 地学天文-地球科学综合

CiteScore

5.20

自引率

11.50%

发文量

800

审稿时长

5.8 months

期刊介绍： The COSPAR publication Advances in Space Research (ASR) is an open journal covering all areas of space research including: space studies of the Earth''s surface, meteorology, climate, the Earth-Moon system, planets and small bodies of the solar system, upper atmospheres, ionospheres and magnetospheres of the Earth and planets including reference atmospheres, space plasmas in the solar system, astrophysics from space, materials sciences in space, fundamental physics in space, space debris, space weather, Earth observations of space phenomena, etc. NB: Please note that manuscripts related to life sciences as related to space are no more accepted for submission to Advances in Space Research. Such manuscripts should now be submitted to the new COSPAR Journal Life Sciences in Space Research (LSSR). All submissions are reviewed by two scientists in the field. COSPAR is an interdisciplinary scientific organization concerned with the progress of space research on an international scale. Operating under the rules of ICSU, COSPAR ignores political considerations and considers all questions solely from the scientific viewpoint.