The potential role of abandoned cropland for food security in China

IF 11.2 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL

Resources Conservation and Recycling Pub Date : 2024-11-07 DOI:10.1016/j.resconrec.2024.108004

Xiaoran Wu , Na Zhao , Yuwei Wang , Yanlei Ye , Wei Wang , Tianxiang Yue , Liqiang Zhang , Yansui Liu

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Abstract

The widespread abandonment of croplands poses a severe threat to China's food security. However, the existing knowledge regarding the potential for recultivating abandoned croplands is limited. Previous studies have generally overestimated this potential due to inadequate assessments of their suitability for recultivation. In the present study, an optimized machine learning approach was introduced to assess, for the first time, the suitability of abandoned croplands for recultivation in China. In 2022, the total abandoned croplands in China covered 31.2 million hectares, of which 82.54 % was deemed suitable for recultivation. Recultivating abandoned croplands in China could substantially enhance food security, potentially yielding around 162 million tons annually. Moreover, crop switching can further increase the yield rate by up to 24.95 % or energy supply by up to 43.14 %. The present study offers valuable insights to policymakers in determining cropping strategies, establishing strategic grain reserves, and managing international food trade.

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废弃耕地对中国粮食安全的潜在作用

耕地的大面积抛荒对中国的粮食安全构成了严重威胁。然而，现有的关于废弃耕地复垦潜力的知识十分有限。由于对耕地复垦适宜性的评估不足，以往的研究普遍高估了这一潜力。本研究首次引入了一种优化的机器学习方法来评估中国废弃耕地的复垦适宜性。2022 年，中国废弃耕地总面积为 3120 万公顷，其中 82.54% 被认为适合复垦。中国废弃耕地的复垦可大幅提高粮食安全，年产量可能达到约 1.62 亿吨。此外，作物转换可进一步提高产量达 24.95% 或能源供应达 43.14%。本研究为政策制定者确定种植战略、建立战略粮食储备和管理国际粮食贸易提供了有价值的见解。

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来源期刊

Resources Conservation and Recycling 环境科学-工程：环境

CiteScore

22.90

自引率

6.10%

发文量

625

审稿时长

23 days

期刊介绍： The journal Resources, Conservation & Recycling welcomes contributions from research, which consider sustainable management and conservation of resources. The journal prioritizes understanding the transformation processes crucial for transitioning toward more sustainable production and consumption systems. It highlights technological, economic, institutional, and policy aspects related to specific resource management practices such as conservation, recycling, and resource substitution, as well as broader strategies like improving resource productivity and restructuring production and consumption patterns. Contributions may address regional, national, or international scales and can range from individual resources or technologies to entire sectors or systems. Authors are encouraged to explore scientific and methodological issues alongside practical, environmental, and economic implications. However, manuscripts focusing solely on laboratory experiments without discussing their broader implications will not be considered for publication in the journal.