Long-range energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions analysis using the LEAP Model: A case study of building ceramic industrial park

IF 4.4 2区工程技术 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS

Energy for Sustainable Development Pub Date : 2024-11-14 DOI:10.1016/j.esd.2024.101594

Lin Lu , Yanghua Chen , Qing Feng , Wenqi Li , Dan Chen

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

The ceramic industry is acknowledged as a sector with high energy demands, with industrial parks serving as its primary product producers. Consequently, to explore the potential of the ceramics industry in carbon emission reduction and energy conservation, this study combined lifecycle energy demand with the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP). The analysis indicates that over the period from 2020 to 2040, the Technology Promotion (TP) scenario is poised to outperform the Low Carbon (LC) scenario in reducing energy consumption. Energy consumption may be reduced by 52 % in the LC scenario and 58 % in the TP scenario. Moreover, the TP scenario also demonstrates even greater efficacy in emissions reduction. In terms of greenhouse gas emissions, in 2040, the building ceramics industrial park is expected to generate 6.05 million tons of CO₂ in the Baseline (BS) scenario, 5.02 and 4.32 million tons of CO₂ in the LC and TP scenarios, respectively, which corresponds to a reduction of 17 %–30 %. It is expected that this study will fill knowledge gaps pertaining to energy efficiency potential in industrial park energy-intensive industries.

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利用 LEAP 模型进行长期能源需求和温室气体排放分析：建筑陶瓷工业园案例研究

陶瓷工业是公认的高能耗行业，工业园区是其主要产品生产者。因此，为了探索陶瓷工业在碳减排和节能方面的潜力，本研究将生命周期能源需求与低排放分析平台（LEAP）相结合。分析表明，在 2020 年至 2040 年期间，技术推广（TP）方案在减少能源消耗方面有望超过低碳（LC）方案。在低碳方案中，能源消耗可减少 52%，而在技术促进方案中，能源消耗可减少 58%。此外，TP 方案在减排方面也表现出更大的功效。就温室气体排放而言，2040 年，建筑陶瓷工业园区在基准（BS）情景下预计将产生 605 万吨二氧化碳，在 LC 和 TP 情景下分别为 502 万吨和 432 万吨，相当于减排 17 %-30 %。预计本研究将填补有关工业园区能源密集型产业能效潜力的知识空白。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Energy for Sustainable Development ENERGY & FUELS-ENERGY & FUELS

CiteScore

8.10

自引率

9.10%

发文量

187

审稿时长

6-12 weeks

期刊介绍： Published on behalf of the International Energy Initiative, Energy for Sustainable Development is the journal for decision makers, managers, consultants, policy makers, planners and researchers in both government and non-government organizations. It publishes original research and reviews about energy in developing countries, sustainable development, energy resources, technologies, policies and interactions.