Spatial and temporal variation in energy-based carbon dioxide emissions and their predictions at city scale in future, China

Abstract

In this study, following the calculation of energy-based CO₂ emissions at the provincial scale, a downscaling method is employed to derive CO₂ emissions at city scale in China. Subsequently, an innovative model is developed to forecast CO₂ emissions for each city from 2020 to 2030. Our findings suggest that: (1) High CO₂ emission provinces and cities are primarily situated in the North China Plain and coastal regions. (2) There exists a distinct linear relationship between energy-based CO₂ emissions and nighttime lights (NTLs) across provinces on an annual scale. (3) Between 2020 and 2030, the emergence of high CO₂ emission regions in central and western China is anticipated, and a predicted decline in CO₂ emissions for 70 cities over this period. The methodology outlined in this study can be adapted for use in other countries and regions to assist local governments in formulating policies for carbon reduction and addressing climate change.