Optimal Atmospheric Heat Sources for the Interannual Variability of South Asian Summer Monsoon

Abstract

Using a Green's function-like approach, this study identifies optimal atmospheric heat sources for the two leading modes of South Asian Summer Monsoon (SASM) interannual variability. Optimal heating for the first mode, characterized by a lower-level anomalous anticyclone over northern Bay of Bengal (BOB), is distributed over the Arabian Sea and tropical eastern Indian Ocean (EIO)-Maritime Continent, with cooling over the BOB-western North Pacific. In contrast, heating over the tropical southwestern Indian Ocean and equatorial Atlantic, along with cooling over the tropical EIO-western Pacific, optimally drives the second mode, featuring an anomalous anticyclone over central-northern India. El Niño/Southern Oscillation indirectly influences SASM by triggering heat sources resembling these optimal patterns. Other sea surface temperatures (SSTs), like those over equatorial Atlantic, can also generate similar heating structures, causing corresponding SASM anomalies. This suggests that the impact of SST modes on SASM depends on the similarity of induced heat sources to optimal patterns.