Investigating the impacts of climate variations and armed conflict on drought and vegetation cover in Northeast Syria (2000–2023)

Abstract

Over the last decades, The Northeast part of Syria (NES) has been significantly affected by multiple drought events, which are exacerbated by armed conflict and climate variations. In this study, the spatiotemporal effects of climate fluctuations on drought episodes and agricultural areas in NES from 2000 to 2023 were examined by utilizing diverse meteorological parameters combined with the normalized difference vegetation index. The relationships between the change in climatic variables and vegetation cover alterations were determined by performing different statistical methods, such as the Pearson correlation coefficient and Mann-Kendall trend analysis. The results indicated a significant decrease in the agricultural area, especially in recent years, accompanied by a notable increase in the precipitation levels. Moreover, there has been a substantial increase in temperatures, particularly in the minimum temperatures. The results also indicate that drought severity and frequency have increased since the armed conflict despite the area receiving higher precipitation amounts, highlighting the role and impacts of violence. Therefore, we recommend further research on how different vegetation species have been affected by climate change and armed conflict, defining specific growing seasons for each vegetation species, and creating land use land cover maps to understand the spatial alteration of these types better.