The Potential of Internal Migration to Shape Rural and Urban Populations Across Africa, Asia, and Latin America

Abstract

Subnational divergence in the age and sex structures of populations can have far‐stretching consequences for development: from marriage markets to the potential for violence to economic growth. With urbanization and the demographic transition still underway, rural and urban populations continue to differ across low‐ and middle‐income countries. We examine the extent by which internal migration contributes to these differences, from 1970 to 2014 using estimates of migration between rural and urban sectors based on census data from 45 countries. We found that despite heavily delineated migration profiles by age and sex, internal migration does not alter sex and age structures of rural and urban populations. All the same, internal migration does increase urban growth in Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean. In contrast, in Africa, internal migration has little leverage with the urban transition. Across the continents, there is a potential for de‐urbanization, driven by a rural/urban gap in fertility. As such, the rural population may continue to constitute a significant proportion of national populations, necessitating critical investments to ensure they are not left behind.