Tomasz Kur, Justyna Śliwińska-Bronowicz, Malgorzata Wińska, Henryk Dobslaw, Jolanta Nastula, Aleksander Partyka, Santiago Belda, Christian Bizouard, Dale Boggs, Sara Bruni, Lue Chen, Mike Chin, Sujata Dhar, Robert Dill, PengShuo Duan, Jose M. Ferrandiz, Junyang Gou, Richard Gross, Sonia Guessoum, Songtao Han, Robert Heinkelmann, ChengLi Huang, Christopher Irrgang, Jacek Kudrys, Jia Li, Marcin Ligas, Lintao Liu, Weitao Lu, Volker Mayer, Wei Miao, Maciej Michalczak, Sadegh Modiri, Michiel Otten, Todd Ratcliff, Shrishail Raut, Jan Saynisch-Wagner, Matthias Schartner, Erik Schoenemann, Harald Schuh, M. Kiani Shahvandi, Benedikt Soja, Xiaoqing Su, Daniela Thaller, Maik Thomas, Guocheng Wang, Yuanwei Wu, CanCan Xu, Xueqing Xu, Xinyu Yang, Xin Zhao, Zhijin Zhou
{"title":"Prospects of Predicting the Polar Motion Based on the Results of the Second Earth Orientation Parameters Prediction Comparison Campaign","authors":"Tomasz Kur, Justyna Śliwińska-Bronowicz, Malgorzata Wińska, Henryk Dobslaw, Jolanta Nastula, Aleksander Partyka, Santiago Belda, Christian Bizouard, Dale Boggs, Sara Bruni, Lue Chen, Mike Chin, Sujata Dhar, Robert Dill, PengShuo Duan, Jose M. Ferrandiz, Junyang Gou, Richard Gross, Sonia Guessoum, Songtao Han, Robert Heinkelmann, ChengLi Huang, Christopher Irrgang, Jacek Kudrys, Jia Li, Marcin Ligas, Lintao Liu, Weitao Lu, Volker Mayer, Wei Miao, Maciej Michalczak, Sadegh Modiri, Michiel Otten, Todd Ratcliff, Shrishail Raut, Jan Saynisch-Wagner, Matthias Schartner, Erik Schoenemann, Harald Schuh, M. Kiani Shahvandi, Benedikt Soja, Xiaoqing Su, Daniela Thaller, Maik Thomas, Guocheng Wang, Yuanwei Wu, CanCan Xu, Xueqing Xu, Xinyu Yang, Xin Zhao, Zhijin Zhou","doi":"10.1029/2023EA003278","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div>\n \n \n <section>\n \n <p>Growing interest in Earth Orientation Parameters (EOP) resulted in various approaches to the EOP prediction algorithms, as well as in the exploitation of distinct input data, including the observed EOP values from various operational data centers and modeled effective angular momentum functions. Considering these developments and recently emerged new methodologies, the Second Earth Orientation Parameters Prediction Comparison Campaign (2nd EOP PCC) was pursued in 2021–2022. The campaign was led by Centrum Badań Kosmicznych Polskiej Akademii Nauk in cooperation with Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum and under the auspices of the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service. This paper provides the analysis and evaluation of the polar motion predictions submitted during the 2nd EOP PCC with the prediction horizons between 10 and 30 days. Our analysis shows that predictions are highly reliable with only a few occasional discrepancies identified in the submitted files. We demonstrate the accuracy of EOP predictions by (a) calculating the mean absolute error relative to polar motion observations from September 2021 through December 2022 and (b) assessing the stability of the predictions in time. The analysis shows unequal results for the <i>x</i> and <i>y</i> components of polar motion (PMx and PMy, respectively). Predictions of PMy are usually more accurate and have a smaller spread across all submitted files when compared to PMx. We present an analysis of similarity between the participants to indicate what methods and input data give comparable output. We also prepared the ranking of prediction methods for polar motion summarizing the achievements of the campaign.</p>\n </section>\n </div>","PeriodicalId":54286,"journal":{"name":"Earth and Space Science","volume":"11 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.9000,"publicationDate":"2024-11-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2023EA003278","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Earth and Space Science","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2023EA003278","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Growing interest in Earth Orientation Parameters (EOP) resulted in various approaches to the EOP prediction algorithms, as well as in the exploitation of distinct input data, including the observed EOP values from various operational data centers and modeled effective angular momentum functions. Considering these developments and recently emerged new methodologies, the Second Earth Orientation Parameters Prediction Comparison Campaign (2nd EOP PCC) was pursued in 2021–2022. The campaign was led by Centrum Badań Kosmicznych Polskiej Akademii Nauk in cooperation with Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum and under the auspices of the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service. This paper provides the analysis and evaluation of the polar motion predictions submitted during the 2nd EOP PCC with the prediction horizons between 10 and 30 days. Our analysis shows that predictions are highly reliable with only a few occasional discrepancies identified in the submitted files. We demonstrate the accuracy of EOP predictions by (a) calculating the mean absolute error relative to polar motion observations from September 2021 through December 2022 and (b) assessing the stability of the predictions in time. The analysis shows unequal results for the x and y components of polar motion (PMx and PMy, respectively). Predictions of PMy are usually more accurate and have a smaller spread across all submitted files when compared to PMx. We present an analysis of similarity between the participants to indicate what methods and input data give comparable output. We also prepared the ranking of prediction methods for polar motion summarizing the achievements of the campaign.
期刊介绍:
Marking AGU’s second new open access journal in the last 12 months, Earth and Space Science is the only journal that reflects the expansive range of science represented by AGU’s 62,000 members, including all of the Earth, planetary, and space sciences, and related fields in environmental science, geoengineering, space engineering, and biogeochemistry.