The effects of Covid-19 stay-at-home orders on street and cybercrimes in a Brazilian city

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic led public officials to impose stay-at-home orders, dramatically changing individuals' routine activities. With people spending more time at home, opportunities for street crimes were expected to decrease, while cybercrimes were expected to increase. This study examines the effects of stay-at-home orders on police reports of street crimes (theft, auto theft, residential burglary, and robbery) and cybercrimes (online fraud) in Belo Horizonte, Brazil. We utilized ARIMA Interrupted Time Series models, incorporating weekly data from 2017 to 2022. The findings largely supported the hypothesis for street crimes, particularly theft and auto theft. These crimes, which often occur in crowded areas and during events, had a significant decrease due to reduced public gatherings resulting from the orders. However, the orders did not significantly impact robberies and residential burglaries, possibly indicating that offenders quickly found new opportunities. Contrary to expectations, the orders did not lead to an increase in cybercrimes. According to routine activity theory, crime occurs when motivated offenders, suitable targets, and the absence of capable guardians converge in time and space. However, the digital realm challenges this prediction due to the disruption of traditional notions of time and space.