Analysis of carbon emission characteristics and establishment of prediction models for residential and office buildings in China

Abstract

Intensifying environmental issues make carbon reduction crucial, especially in the construction industry. Embodied carbon emissions (ECE) in buildings characteristically involve concentrated, intensive emissions over a short period. Implementing energy-saving and carbon-reducing technologies has raised ECE rates. Therefore, analyzing carbon emission (CE) characteristics during the production and construction phases is necessary. Currently, essential data on ECE is lacking, the calculation methods are complex, and ECE's characteristics and influential factors in residential and office buildings remain unclear. Moreover, there is a lack of prediction models for ECE in the construction phase that apply to current construction methods and CE factors. The research on prediction models for ECE has primarily focused on the production phase but has paid little attention to the contribution of non-structural materials to embodied carbon (EC). In this study, reinforced concrete residential and office buildings in hot summer and cold winter regions (located in the southeast part of mainland China, with a subtropical monsoon climate) were considered typical types, and the CE characteristics of two main phases, the production and construction phases, were analyzed. Based on critical features, such as the number of floors and the basement, prediction models for ECE in residential and office buildings were established at the design stage. The models were validated with mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) values below 4 %, and coefficient of variation (root mean square error) (CV [RMSE]) values less than 0.02. The prediction models enabled a rapid estimation of ECE, encouraging designers to consider EC in the early design stages.