Decarbonization costs for the Swedish heavy-duty road fleet: Circular economy insights on electric truck batteries

Abstract

This study analyzes decarbonization costs for the Swedish heavy-duty road fleet under five scenarios, one taken from the EUCalc model as a reference scenario and four others driven by interviews: a high-speed transition with 100% battery electric vehicles (BEVs) across all distances; a high-speed transition with BEVs taking 100% of the market in local and regional distances and 40% in long distances, with the remaining 60% being fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) by 2050; a low-speed transition with BEVs market share increasing by 15% every five years, starting at 10% from 2025 for local and 2030 for regional and long distances; and a low-speed transition similar to the previous scenario, but with 60% of the electrified long-distance fleet to be FCVs. The system's expenses are then calculated through numerical modeling. The study links research on the costs of sustainability transition to a circular economy by analyzing the effect of charging range and temperature on battery degradation for BEVs and their impact on the batteries' valorization. In full electrification scenarios, despite lower operating expenses, the system incurs a higher total cost because of higher investment expenses. Charging–discharging pattern and temperature impact the remaining capacity, and therefore salvage value, of end-of-life batteries.