Transformation of the tobacco product market in Japan, 2011-2023.

IF 4 2区医学 Q1 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH

Tobacco Control Pub Date : 2024-10-29 DOI:10.1136/tc-2024-058734

K Michael Cummings, Avery Roberson, David T Levy, Rafael Meza, Kenneth E Warner, Geoffrey T Fong, Steve Shaowei Xu, Shannon Gravely, Bibha Dhungel, Ron Borland, Richard J O'Connor, Maciej Lukasz Goniewicz, David T Sweanor

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Objective: This study updates a previous paper that examined trends in the sale of cigarettes and heated tobacco products (HTPs) in Japan between 2011 and part way through 2019. The current study includes complete unit sales data through 2023.

Methods: Data on cigarette and HTP sales were obtained from public sources available from the websites and stockholder reports for the Tobacco Institute of Japan, Philip Morris International and Japan Tobacco. We used joinpoint regression using the parametric method to test for trends in both per capita and total sales for the three outcome variables assessed between 2011 and 2023: (1) cigarette sales, (2) HTP sales and (3) combined cigarette and HTP sales. Joinpoint regression identifies changes in trends and estimates the annual per cent change (APC) for each trend segment.

Results: Between 2011 and 2023, per capita and total cigarette sales declined by 52.6% and 52.7%, respectively. From 2011 to 2015, per capita cigarette sales in Japan decreased -1.5% APC; from 2015 to 2018, the decline accelerated to -10.5% APC and continued to fall -7.3% APC between 2018 and 2023. Between 2016 and 2018, per capita HTP sales increased by 149.0% APC, and since 2018, they have increased by 8.1% APC.

Conclusion: While many factors may account for the decreased sale of cigarettes in Japan over the past 12 years, the increased sale of HTPs appears to be a factor.

查看原文本刊更多论文

2011-2023 年日本烟草制品市场的转型。

研究目的本研究更新了之前的一篇论文，该论文研究了 2011 年至 2019 年期间日本卷烟和加热烟草制品 (HTP) 的销售趋势。本研究包括直至 2023 年的完整单位销售数据：卷烟和加热烟草制品销售数据来自日本烟草研究所、菲利普莫里斯国际公司和日本烟草公司网站和股东报告中的公开资料。我们使用参数法进行联结点回归，以检验 2011 年至 2023 年间三个结果变量的人均销售额和总销售额的趋势：(1) 卷烟销售额，(2) HTP 销售额，(3) 卷烟和 HTP 合并销售额。连接点回归确定了趋势的变化，并估算了每个趋势部分的年百分比变化 (APC)：结果：2011 年至 2023 年，人均卷烟销量和卷烟总销量分别下降了 52.6% 和 52.7%。从 2011 年到 2015 年，日本的人均卷烟销量下降了-1.5% APC；从 2015 年到 2018 年，下降速度加快，达到-10.5% APC，并在 2018 年到 2023 年期间继续下降-7.3% APC。2016 年至 2018 年，HTP 的人均销售量增加了 149.0% APC，自 2018 年以来，HTP 的人均销售量增加了 8.1% APC.结论：虽然许多因素可能导致过去 12 年日本香烟销量下降，但 HTP 的销量增加似乎是一个因素。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Tobacco Control 医学-公共卫生、环境卫生与职业卫生

CiteScore

9.10

自引率

26.90%

发文量

223

审稿时长

6-12 weeks

期刊介绍： Tobacco Control is an international peer-reviewed journal covering the nature and consequences of tobacco use worldwide; tobacco''s effects on population health, the economy, the environment, and society; efforts to prevent and control the global tobacco epidemic through population-level education and policy changes; the ethical dimensions of tobacco control policies; and the activities of the tobacco industry and its allies.