Network invulnerability modeling of daily necessity supply based on cascading failure considering emergencies and dynamic demands

Abstract

Confronting the escalating challenge of emergencies, the urban supply network of daily necessity is an important defense line for human well-being. This study introduces a groundbreaking approach that leverages mobile signaling data, departing from static regional data, to model large-scale and high-precision urban supply-demand network. Moreover, a significant stride in assessing network invulnerability is presented by incorporating cascading failure and emphasizing demand-side factors in attack strategy simulations. This approach marks a paradigm shift in network invulnerability simulation: moving from network topology characteristics to a human-centric approach, which helps better identify vulnerable zones. The model’s robustness is corroborated through simulations of major disaster scenarios. The results indicate that: 1) High-precision human mobility data promises large-scale urban supply-demand network modeling with high accuracy. 2) In regions characterized by greater vulnerability, the establishment of local supply networks demonstrates efficacy in mitigating the impacts of minor disasters. 3) During various stages of cascading failure, the leading factors contributing to community supply shortages vary, with population density being the predominant factor. This research propels the methodology forward, incorporating multi-scenario simulations to augment practicality, and offers valuable insights for urban supply system enhancement.