Balanced-risk analysis in the engineering design of complex systems with extreme conditions

Abstract

The engineering design of components and systems in a fusion power plant, an example of a complex system with extreme conditions, requires careful consideration and balance of the numerous associated risks. Key risks are observed from several perspectives and categorised as failure modes, situational and quality risks. Several methods exist for the separate consideration of these risks at the various design phases. However, an optimum approach is to consider all risks and balance the effects during the early design phase. The paper introduces a novel methodology to consider all associated risks at the conceptual design phase by combining a generalised Π-theorem and dimensional analysis for qualitative physics reasoning. The method is applied to a Balance of Plant components as a case study. Initial results show positive concurrent consideration and analysis of all risks in the conceptual stage.