Parameters estimation and uncertainty assessment in the transmission dynamics of rabies in humans and dogs

Abstract

Rabies remains a pressing global public health issue, demanding effective modeling and control strategies. This study focused on developing a mathematical model using ordinary differential equations (ODEs) to estimate parameters and assess uncertainties related to the transmission dynamics of rabies in humans and dogs. To determine model parameters and address uncertainties, next-generation matrices were utilized to calculate the basic reproduction number $R_0$. Furthermore, the Partial Rank Correlation Coefficient was used to identify parameters that significantly influence model outputs. The analysis of equilibrium states revealed that the rabies-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when $R_0<1$, whereas the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when $R_0\ge 1$. To reduce the severity of rabies and align with the Global Rabies Control (GRC) initiative by 2030, the study recommends implementing control strategies targeting indoor domestic dogs.