Economic complexity and deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon

IF 5.4 1区经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES

World Development Pub Date : 2024-10-18 DOI:10.1016/j.worlddev.2024.106804

Fabricio Silveira , João P. Romero , Arthur Queiroz , Elton Freitas , Alexandre Stein

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Abstract

As the Amazon rainforest faces ever-increasing deforestation, finding a balance between conservation and economic progress becomes imperative. This study investigates the relationship between regional economic complexity (ECI-R) and deforestation in municipalities within the Brazilian Amazon between 2006 and 2021. Employing different econometric techniques, we untangle the multifaceted factors determining land use choices while considering variables associated with agriculture, extraction, and livestock activities. Rigorous testing confirms the validity of our findings. The results suggest an “environmental Kuznets curve” at play in the Amazon. This means that a slight increase in regional economic complexity (0.1 unit) initially leads to a significant rise in deforestation (28 %) but is followed by a decrease (8.4 %) in the following year. Interestingly, environmental fines appear to be a powerful tool for controlling deforestation. Further analysis using Probit regressions reinforces the key roles of economic complexity and environmental enforcement. Municipalities with higher regional complexity were 20 % more likely to experience low deforestation and high employment growth between 2006 and 2011. However, this trend reversed in later periods. Ultimately, the results indicate a complex relationship between economic complexity and deforestation. These findings highlight governments’ critical role in promoting sustainable development in the Amazon. There are limits to such an approach but supporting “green” industries and curbing deforestation-related activities can steer the region towards a more prosperous and environmentally responsible future.

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巴西亚马逊地区的经济复杂性和毁林问题

随着亚马逊雨林面临日益严重的森林砍伐，在保护和经济发展之间找到平衡点已成为当务之急。本研究调查了 2006 年至 2021 年期间巴西亚马逊地区各城市的地区经济复杂性（ECI-R）与森林砍伐之间的关系。我们采用不同的计量经济学技术，在考虑与农业、采掘业和畜牧业活动相关的变量的同时，解开了决定土地使用选择的多方面因素。严格的测试证实了我们研究结果的有效性。结果表明，亚马逊地区存在 "环境库兹涅茨曲线"。这意味着，地区经济复杂性的轻微增加（0.1 个单位）最初会导致森林砍伐量大幅上升（28%），但随后一年又会下降（8.4%）。有趣的是，环境罚款似乎是控制森林砍伐的有力工具。利用 Probit 回归进行的进一步分析加强了经济复杂性和环境执法的关键作用。在 2006 年至 2011 年期间，地区复杂度较高的城市出现低森林砍伐率和高就业增长率的可能性要高出 20%。然而，这一趋势在后期发生了逆转。最终，研究结果表明，经济复杂性与森林砍伐之间存在着复杂的关系。这些发现凸显了政府在促进亚马逊地区可持续发展中的关键作用。这种方法有其局限性，但支持 "绿色 "产业和遏制与森林砍伐相关的活动可以引导该地区走向更加繁荣和对环境负责的未来。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

World Development Multiple-

CiteScore

12.70

自引率

5.80%

发文量

320

期刊介绍： World Development is a multi-disciplinary monthly journal of development studies. It seeks to explore ways of improving standards of living, and the human condition generally, by examining potential solutions to problems such as: poverty, unemployment, malnutrition, disease, lack of shelter, environmental degradation, inadequate scientific and technological resources, trade and payments imbalances, international debt, gender and ethnic discrimination, militarism and civil conflict, and lack of popular participation in economic and political life. Contributions offer constructive ideas and analysis, and highlight the lessons to be learned from the experiences of different nations, societies, and economies.