Disentangling temporal changes in travel behavior: An age-period-cohort analysis based on German travel demand

IF 4 Q1 HOSPITALITY, LEISURE, SPORT & TOURISM

Annals of Tourism Research Empirical Insights Pub Date : 2024-10-22 DOI:10.1016/j.annale.2024.100155

Elisabeth Bartl , Alexander Bauer , Maximilian Weigert , Marion Karl , Jürgen Schmude , Helmut Küchenhoff

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Travel behavior changes over the temporal dimensions age, period, and cohort. However, longitudinal studies that simultaneously analyze and separate these temporal effects are missing. This study aims to disentangle the temporal changes in travel behavior (participation, frequency, expenses) and explain these changes through different theoretical lenses. Our analysis builds on large-scale representative secondary data from a repeated cross-sectional survey in Germany on the leisure travel behavior between 1983 and 2018 (N = 198,000) and uses generalized additive regression. Age and period are main drivers for changes in travel participation, cohort and age main drivers for changes in travel frequency over time. Relative travel expenses do not substantially change over time. Understanding temporal changes in travel behavior can support long-term planning in tourism.

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区分旅行行为的时间变化：基于德国旅行需求的年龄段队列分析

旅行行为会随着年龄、时期和队列等时间维度的变化而变化。然而，同时分析和分离这些时间效应的纵向研究却十分缺乏。本研究旨在区分旅行行为（参与、频率、花费）的时间变化，并通过不同的理论视角解释这些变化。我们的分析建立在大规模代表性二手数据的基础上，这些数据来自于 1983 年至 2018 年间德国休闲旅行行为的重复横截面调查（N = 19.8 万），并使用了广义加法回归。年龄和时期是旅行参与度变化的主要驱动因素，队列和年龄是旅行频率随时间变化的主要驱动因素。相对旅行费用随时间变化不大。了解旅游行为的时间变化有助于旅游业的长期规划。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Annals of Tourism Research Empirical Insights Social Sciences-Sociology and Political Science

CiteScore

5.30

自引率

0.00%

发文量

审稿时长

106 days