Mineral price instability and its effects on conflict in industrial and small-scale mining in eastern congo

Abstract

Existing research emphasizes a strong correlation between mining activity and local disputes but does not distinguish between small-scale and large-scale mining operations. This research utilizes the volatility of mineral prices and the issue of industrial mining licenses to investigate their influence on conflict levels in Eastern Congo from 2004 – 2022. Our research indicates that as mineral prices rise, conflicts related to small-scale mining areas intensify, which suggests competition between militant factions.Nevertheless, the influence of such an effect is significantly diminished within the framework of industrial mining. In addition, the expansion of industrial mining activities often leads to decreased confrontations, indicating that firms have implemented adequate security procedures. Conversely, its growth causes community dissatisfaction, and when it replaces small-scale mining, it also leads to increased citizen aggression and theft. Based on thorough case evaluations, these negative outcomes only occur when industrial mining moves from the initial exploration phase to full-scale production.