Dealing with uncertainty in cybersecurity decision support

IF 4.8 2区计算机科学 Q1 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INFORMATION SYSTEMS

Computers & Security Pub Date : 2024-10-09 DOI:10.1016/j.cose.2024.104153

Yunxiao Zhang , Pasquale Malacaria

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

The mathematical modeling of cybersecurity decision-making heavily relies on cybersecurity metrics. However, achieving precision in these metrics is notoriously challenging, and their inaccuracies can significantly influence model outcomes. This paper explores resilience to uncertainties in the effectiveness of security controls. We employ probabilistic attack graphs to model threats and introduce two resilient models: minmax regret and min-product of risks, comparing their performance.

Building on previous Stackelberg game models for cybersecurity, our approach leverages totally unimodular matrices and linear programming (LP) duality to provide efficient solutions. While minmax regret is a well-known approach in robust optimization, our extensive simulations indicate that, in this context, the lesser-known min-product of risks offers superior resilience.

To demonstrate the practical utility and robustness of our framework, we include a multi-dimensional decision support case study focused on home IoT cybersecurity investments, highlighting specific insights and outcomes. This study illustrates the framework’s effectiveness in real-world settings.

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应对网络安全决策支持中的不确定性

网络安全决策的数学建模在很大程度上依赖于网络安全指标。然而，实现这些指标的精确性是一项众所周知的挑战，而且这些指标的不准确性会严重影响模型的结果。本文探讨了对安全控制效果不确定性的适应能力。我们采用概率攻击图对威胁进行建模，并引入了两种弹性模型：最大遗憾模型和风险最小乘积模型，并对它们的性能进行了比较。我们的方法建立在以前的网络安全 Stackelberg 博弈模型的基础上，利用完全单模块矩阵和线性规划（LP）对偶性来提供高效的解决方案。虽然最小遗憾是稳健优化中的一种众所周知的方法，但我们进行的大量模拟表明，在这种情况下，鲜为人知的风险最小乘积可提供卓越的复原能力。为了证明我们框架的实用性和稳健性，我们纳入了一项多维决策支持案例研究，重点关注家庭物联网网络安全投资，强调具体的见解和结果。这项研究说明了该框架在现实世界中的有效性。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Computers & Security 工程技术-计算机：信息系统

CiteScore

12.40

自引率

7.10%

发文量

365

审稿时长

10.7 months

期刊介绍： Computers & Security is the most respected technical journal in the IT security field. With its high-profile editorial board and informative regular features and columns, the journal is essential reading for IT security professionals around the world. Computers & Security provides you with a unique blend of leading edge research and sound practical management advice. It is aimed at the professional involved with computer security, audit, control and data integrity in all sectors - industry, commerce and academia. Recognized worldwide as THE primary source of reference for applied research and technical expertise it is your first step to fully secure systems.