High temperatures and traffic accident crimes: Evidence from more than 470,000 offenses in China

Abstract

How does climate change affect road safety? This study examines the impacts of high temperatures on the crime of causing traffic casualties based on comprehensive data covering more than 470,000 offenses from verdicts published by Chinese courts. Using 2014–2018 city-level daily panel data, we find that a day with a daily maximum temperature above 100 °F leads to a significant 11.9 % increase in traffic accident crime compared with days with a mild temperature. Heterogeneity analyses reveal that people aged 45 and above, samples on weekdays, and samples in regions with high population densities are more vulnerable to the effects of extreme heat. More importantly, we find no lagged or cumulative effects and little evidence of adaptation. Finally, by using traffic congestion index data, we observe that drivers can engage in avoidance behavior on hot days, suggesting that our estimates may provide a lower bound on the effect of extreme heat on traffic accident crime.