[Spatiotemporal Eolution and Prediction of Ecosystem Service Value in Taihang Mountains Based on MCCA Land Use Scenario Simulation].

Q2 Environmental Science
Feng Hu, Yao Chen, Chang-Chun Zhang, Guo-Hao Hu
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Ecosystem service value (ESV) is an important indicator related to regional ecological well-being, and understanding its evolution can provide references for regional ecological civilization construction and sustainable development. The Taihang Mountains, an important ecological security barrier in North China, were taken as an example. Based on land use data from 2000 to 2020, this study revealed the changes in land use and ecosystem service value in the Taihang Mountains and conducted multi-scenario simulations of ESV in 2035. Additionally, the land use transfer matrix, improved equivalent factor method, and mixed-cell cellular automata model were used. The results showed that: ① From 2000 to 2020, the main land use types in the Taihang Mountains were cropland, forest land, and grassland. The area of cropland and grassland significantly decreased, whereas the area of forest land and construction land remained stable. The scale of land use transfer was 2.06×104 km2, with a high intensity of transfer from cropland and grassland to other areas, mainly guided by ecological construction. ② The ecosystem service functions in the Taihang Mountains were mainly dominated by regulation services, and the overall ESV showed a stable upward trend, increasing by 1.51×1010 RMB from 2000 to 2020. The spatial distribution of ESV was uneven, and the polarization phenomenon was evident, with high-value areas concentrated in the high-altitude areas in the northern and central-southern parts and low-value areas mostly located in the flat foothills and central plateaus on both sides. They were greatly influenced by human activities. ③ By 2035, compared with that in 2020, the ESV in the Taihang Mountains was projected to increase by 5.37 billion RMB in the natural growth scenario, 4.34 billion RMB in the urban development scenario, and 7.64 billion RMB in the ecological tourism scenario, mainly due to the conversion from cropland and grassland to forest land. The natural growth scenario showed a high intensity of spatial transformation of ESV, the urban development scenario experienced severe ESV loss in cropland, and the ecological tourism scenario showed a significant increase in ESV, which was an effective path for promoting green development in the Taihang Mountains. The research results can provide scientific references for the healthy management and sustainable development of the ecosystem in the Taihang Mountains.

[基于 MCCA 土地利用情景模拟的太行山时空演化与生态系统服务价值预测]。
生态系统服务价值(ESV)是关系区域生态福祉的重要指标,了解其演变过程可为区域生态文明建设和可持续发展提供参考。本文以华北地区重要的生态安全屏障--太行山为例。本研究基于 2000 年至 2020 年的土地利用数据,揭示了太行山土地利用和生态系统服务价值的变化,并对 2035 年的生态系统服务价值进行了多情景模拟。此外,还采用了土地利用转移矩阵、改进等效因子法和混合单元格自动机模型。结果表明: ① 2000-2020 年,太行山主要土地利用类型为耕地、林地和草地。耕地和草地面积明显减少,林地和建设用地面积保持稳定。土地利用流转规模为 2.06×104 km2,耕地和草地向其他地区的流转强度较大,主要以生态建设为引导。太行山生态系统服务功能主要以调节服务为主,总体 ESV 呈稳定上升趋势,2000-2020 年增加 1.51×1010 元。ESV的空间分布不均衡,两极分化现象明显,高价值区集中在北部和中南部的高海拔地区,低价值区主要分布在两侧平坦的山麓和中部高原地区。它们受人类活动的影响很大。到 2035 年,与 2020 年相比,太行山地区的 ESV 在自然增长情景下预计增加 53.7 亿元,在城市发展情景下预计增加 43.4 亿元,在生态旅游情景下预计增加 76.4 亿元。自然增长情景下ESV空间转换强度高,城市发展情景下耕地ESV损失严重,生态旅游情景下ESV显著增加,是促进太行山绿色发展的有效路径。研究成果可为太行山生态系统的健康管理和可持续发展提供科学参考。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
Huanjing Kexue/Environmental Science
Huanjing Kexue/Environmental Science Environmental Science-Environmental Science (all)
CiteScore
4.40
自引率
0.00%
发文量
15329
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