Can satellite products monitor solar brightening in Europe?

Abstract

Satellite products provide the best way to monitor the solar radiation reaching the Earth’s surface on a global scale. However, their capability to monitor solar radiation trends needs to be constantly evaluated. This depends on their temporal stability and the accurate representation of all processes driving solar radiation. This study evaluates these aspects by comparing and cross-comparing different solar radiation products (ERA5, CAMS-RAD 4.6, SARAH-3, CLARA-A3, CERES-EBAF 4.2) against in-situ measurements over Europe.

All products show a moderate positive bias over Europe but strong differences in their root mean squared deviation (RMSD) related to their different cloud transmittance models. Geostationary-based products (SARAH-3, CAMS-RAD 4.6) provide the smallest RMSD closely followed by CLARA-A3, whereas ERA5 shows a large RMSD due to random errors in cloud transmittance.

All products show an increase in surface solar radiation, or brightening, over the last 40 years over Europe, but the magnitude of the trends and their spatiotemporal variability differ between products. Despite finding temporal inhomogeneities in some products, the different trends are mostly due to different aerosol modeling approaches implemented by each product. Both SARAH-3 (+2.3 ${\mathrm{W/m}}^2/\mathrm{decade}$, 2001–22) and CERES-EBAF 4.2 (+2.2 ${\mathrm{W/m}}^2/\mathrm{decade}$, 2001–22) provide the most consistent trends compared to in-situ data, showing that after stabilizing in the late 2000s, brightening is particularly recovering in Western Europe. In-situ measurements show a reduction of aerosol optical depth from 2001 to 2022 that has been accentuated in the last 10 years, particularly in Western Europe. This would be consistent with the hypothesis that brightening recovery is driven by an aerosol reduction, though other analyses suggest that clouds also play a role in this recovery. More work is needed to understand the contribution of aerosols to solar radiation trends and the exact aerosol effects represented by each solar radiation product.