Long-Term Survival of Patient with End-Stage Renal Disease Using Bayesian Mixture Cure Rate Frailty Models.

IF 1.3 4区医学 Q4 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH

Iranian Journal of Public Health Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI:10.18502/ijph.v53i9.16464

Abbas Bahrampour, Mohammad Reza Baneshi, Ali Karamoozian, Navisa Sadat Seyedghasemi, Abbas Etminan, Mostafa Eghbalian

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Background: Along with the increasing prevalence of ESRD in developing countries, the use of more up-to-date statistical models is highly recommended. It is crucial to control potential cure pattern and heterogenicity among patients.

Methods: In this longitudinal study, the data of 170 hemodialysis patients who visited the dialysis department of Shafa Hospital in Kerman from 2006 to 2016 were collected. To provides robust estimates the time to event data (death) were analyzed with a gamma frailty mixed cure Weibull model (MC-WG) using Bayesian inference.

Results: About 49% of patients experienced the death and median survival time was 37.5 months. Older patients (0.264), female patients (0.269), and patients with higher mean serum urea levels (0.186) had a higher risk of death. Moreover, we observe a decrease in death with increase in Creatine (Cr).

Conclusion: In the MC-WG Bayesian model, the diabetes, AST, calcium, phosphorus and uric acid variables had a significant effect on the survival of hemodialysis patients, while they were not significant in the Cox PH model. The results of MC-WG Bayesian model are more consistent with other studies.

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使用贝叶斯混合治愈率虚弱模型评估终末期肾病患者的长期生存率

背景：随着 ESRD 在发展中国家的发病率越来越高，我们强烈建议使用更先进的统计模型。这对于控制潜在的治愈模式和患者间的异质性至关重要：在这项纵向研究中，收集了 2006 年至 2016 年期间在克尔曼沙法医院透析科就诊的 170 名血液透析患者的数据。为了提供可靠的估计值，我们使用贝叶斯推断法对事件（死亡）发生时间数据进行了伽马虚弱混合治愈威布尔模型（MC-WG）分析：结果：约 49% 的患者经历了死亡，中位生存时间为 37.5 个月。年龄较大（0.264）、女性（0.269）和平均血清尿素水平较高（0.186）的患者死亡风险较高。此外，我们还观察到随着肌酸（Cr）的增加，死亡风险也在降低：在 MC-WG 贝叶斯模型中，糖尿病、谷草转氨酶、钙、磷和尿酸变量对血液透析患者的生存率有显著影响，而在 Cox PH 模型中这些变量并不显著。MC-WG 贝叶斯模型的结果与其他研究结果更为一致。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Iranian Journal of Public Health PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH-

CiteScore

2.20

自引率

7.10%

发文量

300

审稿时长

3-8 weeks

期刊介绍： Iranian Journal of Public Health has been continuously published since 1971, as the only Journal in all health domains, with wide distribution (including WHO in Geneva and Cairo) in two languages (English and Persian). From 2001 issue, the Journal is published only in English language. During the last 41 years more than 2000 scientific research papers, results of health activities, surveys and services, have been published in this Journal. To meet the increasing demand of respected researchers, as of January 2012, the Journal is published monthly. I wish this will assist to promote the level of global knowledge. The main topics that the Journal would welcome are: Bioethics, Disaster and Health, Entomology, Epidemiology, Health and Environment, Health Economics, Health Services, Immunology, Medical Genetics, Mental Health, Microbiology, Nutrition and Food Safety, Occupational Health, Oral Health. We would be very delighted to receive your Original papers, Review Articles, Short communications, Case reports and Scientific Letters to the Editor on the above mentioned research areas.