Analysis of risk factors and prediction model construction for varicella encephalitis in children: A retrospective cohort study.

IF 1.3 4区医学 Q4 INFECTIOUS DISEASES

Antiviral Therapy Pub Date : 2024-10-01 DOI:10.1177/13596535241291132

Ce Wang, Li Tang, Dandan Guo

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Introduction: This study aimed to analyze the risk factors for varicella encephalitis in children and establish a predictive model.

Methods: This retrospective cohort study included a varicella encephalitis group (n = 75) and a varicella-non-encephalitis group (n = 135). Logistic regression analysis was employed to find risk factors for varicella encephalitis and create a predictive model.

Results: Older age, vomiting, poor mental status, and prolonged rash duration were independent risk factors for varicella encephalitis (p < .05). The predictive model for varicella encephalitis combined above four factors. The ROC curve of the predictive model showed an area under the curve of 0.955 (95% CI 0.925-0.986) for varicella encephalitis in children with a sensitivity of 94.7%, and a specificity of 86.0%.

Conclusion: Children with varicella who are older, experience vomiting, exhibit poor mental status, or have a prolonged rash duration should be closely monitored clinically. The predictive model combining these four factors demonstrates good predictive efficiency.

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儿童水痘脑炎的风险因素分析和预测模型构建：回顾性队列研究。

简介：本研究旨在分析儿童水痘脑炎的风险因素，并建立预测模型：本研究旨在分析儿童水痘脑炎的风险因素，并建立一个预测模型：这项回顾性队列研究包括水痘脑炎组（75 人）和水痘非脑炎组（135 人）。研究采用逻辑回归分析找出水痘脑炎的风险因素，并建立预测模型：结果：年龄大、呕吐、精神状态差和皮疹持续时间长是水痘脑炎的独立危险因素（p < .05）。水痘脑炎预测模型综合了上述四个因素。预测模型的 ROC 曲线显示，儿童水痘脑炎的曲线下面积为 0.955（95% CI 0.925-0.986），敏感性为 94.7%，特异性为 86.0%：结论：对于年龄较大、出现呕吐、精神状态不佳或皮疹持续时间较长的水痘患儿，临床上应密切监测。结合这四个因素的预测模型具有良好的预测效果。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Antiviral Therapy 医学-病毒学

CiteScore

2.60

自引率

8.30%

发文量

审稿时长

4-8 weeks

期刊介绍： Antiviral Therapy (an official publication of the International Society of Antiviral Research) is an international, peer-reviewed journal devoted to publishing articles on the clinical development and use of antiviral agents and vaccines, and the treatment of all viral diseases. Antiviral Therapy is one of the leading journals in virology and infectious diseases. The journal is comprehensive, and publishes articles concerning all clinical aspects of antiviral therapy. It features editorials, original research papers, specially commissioned review articles, letters and book reviews. The journal is aimed at physicians and specialists interested in clinical and basic research.