Estimating traffic congestion cost uncertainty using a bootstrap scheme

IF 7.3 1区工程技术 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Transportation Research Part D-transport and Environment Pub Date : 2024-10-17 DOI:10.1016/j.trd.2024.104462

Eduard Gañan-Cardenas , Diana Carolina Rios-Echeverri , John R. Ballesteros , John W. Branch-Bedoya

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Abstract

This study introduces a bootstrap-based approach to estimate the uncertainty in the total economic cost of congestion (TCC) due to traffic delays. Focusing on Medellín, Colombia, we employed a stratified random sampling plan of road segments to capture real-time traffic data via Google Maps. By integrating a Linear Mixed-Effects model with a nonparametric Bootstrap method, we produced robust hourly delay distributions, which were then used to estimate TCC. Our findings estimate Medellín’s annual congestion cost at approximately USD 375.7 million, with a 95 % confidence interval ranging from USD 348.2 to USD 405.2 million. This range not only quantifies the uncertainty in congestion costs but also provides a benchmark for future comparisons, enabling policymakers to distinguish significant changes from random fluctuations. The results offer critical insights for urban planning, highlighting key road characteristics that could reduce congestion and addressing the variability often overlooked in cost estimates.

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利用自举法估算交通拥堵成本的不确定性

本研究介绍了一种基于引导法的方法，用于估算交通延误导致的拥堵总经济成本（TCC）的不确定性。我们以哥伦比亚麦德林为中心，采用分层随机抽样计划，通过谷歌地图获取实时交通数据。通过将线性混合效应模型与非参数 Bootstrap 方法相结合，我们得出了稳健的每小时延误分布，然后将其用于估算 TCC。我们的研究结果估计，麦德林每年的拥堵成本约为 3.757 亿美元，95% 置信区间为 3.482 亿美元至 4.052 亿美元。这一范围不仅量化了拥堵成本的不确定性，还为未来的比较提供了基准，使政策制定者能够区分重大变化和随机波动。这些结果为城市规划提供了重要启示，突出了可减少拥堵的关键道路特征，并解决了成本估算中经常忽略的可变性问题。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Transportation Research Part D-transport and Environment 工程技术-运输科技

CiteScore

14.40

自引率

9.20%

发文量

314

审稿时长

39 days

期刊介绍： Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment focuses on original research exploring the environmental impacts of transportation, policy responses to these impacts, and their implications for transportation system design, planning, and management. The journal comprehensively covers the interaction between transportation and the environment, ranging from local effects on specific geographical areas to global implications such as natural resource depletion and atmospheric pollution. We welcome research papers across all transportation modes, including maritime, air, and land transportation, assessing their environmental impacts broadly. Papers addressing both mobile aspects and transportation infrastructure are considered. The journal prioritizes empirical findings and policy responses of regulatory, planning, technical, or fiscal nature. Articles are policy-driven, accessible, and applicable to readers from diverse disciplines, emphasizing relevance and practicality. We encourage interdisciplinary submissions and welcome contributions from economically developing and advanced countries alike, reflecting our international orientation.